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【EVA Morning Brief】With a relatively strong support from the domestic EVA supply side, the market may maintain a firm and steady trend.

Longzhong 2025-03-04 08:50:34

I. Focus Points

1, 3/3: The market is concerned that the US's additional tariffs will drag down the global economy and demand, and it is still uncertain whether OPEC+ can postpone its production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEXcrude oil futures April contract fell by $1.39 per barrel to $68.37, a decrease of -1.99% month-over-month; the ICE Brent oil futures May contract fell by $1.19 per barrel to $71.62, a decrease of -1.63% month-over-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract for 2504 fell by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan per barrel, with the night session falling by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan per barrel.

2, Ethylene: Given the current market conditions, from the perspective of producers, their quotations are continuously setting new low records. This situation has further intensified the wait-and-see attitude among downstream enterprises, making the market trading atmosphere more cautious and hesitant. In this context, there is a possibility of a price adjustment in the market. Analyzing the dollar market, the pressure on supply in the short term cannot be effectively relieved. Moreover, the demand for cargo shipments remains strong. Overall, prices may remain stable at high levels. It is expected that the transaction range will be maintained between 7600-7700 yuan/ton; the dollar market is expected to rise to 900-910 dollars/ton.

Vinyl Acetate: The vinyl acetate market is undergoing range consolidation, with the supply side maintaining steady operating loads and fulfilling production orders. The amount of tradable spot goods in the market is relatively small, and negotiation focuses remain at higher levels. Based on expectations of supply-side contraction, industry players have a firm mindset, paying close attention to changes in downstream operating loads and the production scheduling of some facilities. It is anticipated that the market trend will continue to consolidate at high levels in the near future.

Core Logic: With an upward expectation for ethylene and vinyl acetate costs, and strong support from the domestic EVA supply side, the market is likely to maintain a firm consolidation trend.

II. Price List

III. Market Outlook

In the short term, with strong support from the supply side of petrochemical plants, tight photovoltaic supplies, and robust short-term demand, downstream foam demand is centered around essential needs, with some resistance to high-priced supplies. Traders are very cautious. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will mainly see a firm consolidation. Mainstream market prices: hard materials will fluctuate between 11,300-11,700 yuan/ton, soft materials between 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic materials between 11,600-12,000 yuan/ton.

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【EVA Morning Brief】With a relatively strong support from the domestic EVA supply side, the market may maintain a firm and steady trend.

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