I. Focus Points

3/20: The US continues to strengthen sanctions on Iran, and the instability in the Middle East brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX04 contract 68.26 up 1.10 USD/barrel, MoM +1.64%; ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract 72.00 up 1.22 USD/barrel, MoM +1.72%. China INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 up 0.6 to 522 CNY/barrel, night session up 12.1 to 534.1 CNY/barrel.

2, Ethylene: The volume of market-available goods in the next cycle remains relatively abundant, but it is difficult for downstream external procurement to increase. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the market may continue to decline later. In the US dollar market, the domestic market performance is weak, and the willingness of downstream factories to return bids is low, leading to pressure on import suppliers to ship goods, and there is a possibility of individual negotiations loosening. The transaction range is expected to be maintained between 6800-7300 yuan/ton; the US dollar market is expected to be between 840-870 US dollars/ton.

Vinyl acetate: Some vinyl acetate production facilities are undergoing maintenance or have delayed operations, and the release of new capacity has been postponed. In the short term, the market supply may decrease or fall below expectations. The negotiation prices for large spot orders have started to ease, and intermediaries' sales pace is becoming more cautious. Industry players are cautiously optimistic and paying close attention to the EVA production schedules. The market is in a state of supply and demand competition, and it is expected that the vinyl acetate market will undergo a range-bound consolidation next week.

core logicCost side ethylene and vinyl acetate are weakly stable, with relatively weak cost support. The EVA supply side is under no pressure to maintain the market. Downstream foam demand follows rigid demand. Both supply and demand are weak or will maintain a stable consolidation operation.

II. Price List

Market Outlook

In the short term, the situation of weak supply and demand for EVA domestically may continue, with strong support from photovoltaic demand. The foaming demand is expected to follow the rigid demand without change. On the supply side, most EVA producers are under no pressure to maintain the market, and transactions are in a stalemate, with industry players mainly adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude and an intention to conclude operations. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will mainly show a stable but slightly weak trend. Mainstream market prices: hard materials will fluctuate between 11,200-11,700 yuan/ton, soft materials between 11,400-11,900 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic materials between 11,500-11,900 yuan/ton.