[EVA Morning Brief] Domestic EVA Market Expected to Experience Intraday Fluctuations in the Near Future

1. Focus Points

1 On September 25, [Longzhong] the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, but OPEC+'s stance on increasing production is firm, resulting in mixed fluctuations in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract are at $64.98, down $0.01 per barrel, a change of -0.02%; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the November contract are at $69.42, up $0.11 per barrel, a change of +0.16%. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan per barrel, with a night session increase of 2.2 to 491.1 yuan per barrel.

2 Ethylene: With the restart of a large ethylene plant in East China, market supply is expected to continue increasing. Downstream buyers, having abundant sourcing channels, are not in a hurry to purchase spot goods. Inventories at some production enterprises are slightly rising, and there is a possibility of offering discounts for shipments next week. The transaction range in the East China region is expected to be around 6600-6700 yuan/ton on the next working day; discussions in US dollars may remain between 810-830 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The market price of vinyl acetate continues to rise, supported by increased large orders from downstream customers. Production enterprises have smooth order shipments, and market sentiment is relatively stable, leading to a continuous upward shift in price. Additionally, there are some high quotations. On the supply side, expectations of maintenance shutdowns for certain facilities are contributing to a tightening supply, which significantly supports market sentiment. With the upcoming National Day holiday, spot trading has slowed down. Attention should be paid to next month's supply flow and changes in production load on the supply side. It is expected that the short-term market price of vinyl acetate may still have room for slight upward movement.

Core logic: Ethylene on the cost side is weakening and consolidating, while vinyl acetate shows a strong trend. The cost support is decent, and the EVA supply side provides strong support. Downstream procurement demand revolves around just-in-time needs, with traders primarily focusing on selling before the holiday.

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

10 In the month, there are few domestic EVA plant maintenance activities, and supply is expected to remain ample. The demand from the photovoltaic sector is likely to maintain a relatively stable level, with downstream foam stockpiling mainly driven by essential needs before the holiday, focusing on profit-taking sales. There will be limited news during the holiday period, and it is expected that the domestic EVA market will experience fluctuations in the near term, with attention on the further trend of the market. The expected prices are: soft material reference at 11,100-11,500 yuan/ton, hard material reference at 10,650-11,500 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic material at 10,900-11,200 yuan/ton.