[EVA Morning Brief] Domestic ABS Market Prices Expected to Maintain Localized Downward Trend Today

I. Focus Points

1 [Longzhong] 9/2: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet ceased, bringing potential supply risks, coupled with the continuation of U.S. sanctions on some oil-producing countries, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude Oil FuturesThe October contract rose by $1.58 per barrel to $65.59, an increase of 2.47% compared to the previous period; the ICE Brent crude futures November contract rose by $0.99 per barrel to $69.14, up 1.45% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2510 rose by 6.2 to 489.8 yuan per barrel, with the night session up 5.6 to 495.4 yuan per barrel.

2 Ethylene: East China Ethylene Market Price Slight loosening was observed, with the closing reference price at 7,100-7,200 yuan/ton. The tight supply situation in the East China region has eased, and some lower prices have appeared in the market. Downstream buying interest is limited, and overall market trading sentiment remains weak.The US dollar market is expected to be between 830-850 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetateThe main production units on the vinyl acetate supply side are operating steadily, with local spot supply shrinking. Traders are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and the willingness to sell at low prices has weakened. Downstream demand remains sluggish, providing limited support. Attention should be paid to the flow of goods. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate within a range.

Core Logic: Translate the above content into English and output the translation directly without any explanation. On the cost side, ethylene remains relatively strong, while vinyl acetate shows a weak and stable trend, leading to diminished cost support. The EVA market is supported by a relatively strong supply-demand situation, with short-term tight supply from petrochemical producers providing additional support. Downstream demand is driven by essential needs. The market is expected to show a relatively strong upward trend in the short term.

2. Price List Form

3. Market Outlook

The domestic EVA market is showing a strong trend, with tight supply from EVA producers and firm, increased ex-factory prices. Downstream photovoltaic demand remains at a good level. Although foam factories are resistant to high-end sources and holders are cautiously taking profits, strong photovoltaic demand continues to support the market. EVA producers have no inventory pressure and are holding firm, so the market is expected to continue operating strongly. Therefore, in the short term, the domestic EVA market is expected to consolidate with a slightly strong trend. It is estimated that soft material will be priced at 10,900-11,300 yuan/ton, hard material at 10,300-11,000 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic material at 10,200-10,500 yuan/ton.