[eva morning alert] short-term domestic eva market expected to show weak consolidation trend

I. Points of Attention

1 [Longzhong] 10/28: The market is focusing on OPEC+'s continued production increase plan, coupled with still poor demand prospects, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the December contract fell by $1.16 per barrel to $60.15, a decrease of 1.89% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract fell by $1.22 per barrel to $64.40, a decrease of 1.86% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2512 contract fell by 2.0 to 466.4 yuan per barrel, with the night session dropping 8.3 to 458.1 yuan per barrel.

2 Ethylene: As the end of the month approaches, most enterprises have completed their monthly sales plans, and the available supply for sale in the East China region is relatively tight. However, the downstream product market is performing generally, with a moderate acceptance of high-priced ethylene supplies. It is expected that the East China market will mainly consolidate with a slight upward trend in the next working day, with regional transactions anticipated around 6300 yuan/ton; US dollar supplies are relatively abundant, but domestic demand is weak, which may lead to a price decline, with prices expected to be between 740-760 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The spot supply of vinyl acetate is gradually increasing, and the market sentiment is cautious. Downstream demand is performing moderately, with users inquiring based on just-in-time needs and showing resistance to high-priced sources. New orders are limited, and the focus of negotiations is shifting towards the mid to low end. Vinyl acetate production enterprises are primarily focused on order shipments, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude, paying attention to next month's supply trends and awaiting new guidance. It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will operate with a weak consolidation in the short term.

Core Logic: Stable Production on the Supply Side Downstream demand is following up slowly, with a supply-demand stalemate and game. Industry participants are cautious, and the market has weak favorable factors.

II. Price List Form

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, the supply and demand dynamics continue to play out. The supply side sees stable production from petrochemical plants, with no significant pressure expected at the end of the month. The trade sector remains cautious, primarily focusing on steady operations. Downstream demand is slow to follow, leading to sluggish spot digestion. There is a scarcity of favorable news in the market, resulting in a weak consolidation trend in the domestic EVA market in the short term. Expected prices: soft materials 9,700-10,300 RMB/ton, hard materials 9,800-10,200 RMB/ton, photovoltaic materials 9,400-9,900 RMB/ton.