EVA Morning Alert: Domestic EVA Market Expected to Show Strong Fluctuations Next Week

1. Points of Interest

1 [Longzhong] 8/7: The bearish atmosphere of OPEC+ production increase continues, coupled with the temporary lack of significant concerns over U.S. sanction plans, leading to a six-day decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.47/barrel to $63.88, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.46/barrel to $66.43, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2510 rose by 0.4 to 499.9 yuan/barrel, but fell by 6.1 to 493.8 yuan/barrel in the night session.

2 Ethylene: The ethylene price increase is expected to narrow in the next cycle. In the upcoming cycle, the additional supply of DCC units from Daxie Petrochemical is anticipated to expand, which may alleviate the shortage of goods in the East China region. Additionally, some externally sourced downstream derivatives in East China will enter maintenance, leading to a reduction in externally sourced market volume. Overall, the upward space for ethylene prices in the next cycle is limited. In the USD market, supply is ample, and prices show no significant upward potential. It is expected that the average transaction price in East China will be around 6,900 RMB/ton, while the USD market is likely to fluctuate between 800 and 840 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The vinyl acetate market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the next period. There are currently no new maintenance units on the supply side, and demand remains weak. Multiple EVA units have short-term maintenance plans, weakening large order support. Additionally, some traditional downstream factories have almost no orders, and small order demand is unlikely to improve. Distributors still face sales pressure, and there are low-priced offers that affect the spot market price trend and market sentiment. There is no positive support from the fundamentals, and market prices are expected to have limited downward space next week.

Core logic: The cost of ethylene remains stable, while vinyl acetate shows a downward trend, increasing the cost allowance space. The EVA supply side is under no pressure, supported by firm prices. The market is experiencing tight spot circulation, with demand observing weak follow-up. The EVA market is maintaining a high consolidation trend.

2. Price List Form

3. Market Outlook

In the spot market, both East and South China maintain a firm and steady trend. On the supply side, petrochemical plants are confidently holding up prices, with a tight supply of soft EVA materials providing market support. The supply-demand fundamentals remain stable, and market sentiment is generally cautious and steady. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will show a strong and fluctuating trend next week. Forecast: soft material is expected to be in the range of 10,000-10,600 yuan/ton, hard material 9,700-10,500 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic material 9,500-9,800 yuan/ton.