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[EVA Daily Review] Factory Prices Cut, Weak Demand, Market Moves In A Weak And Fluctuating Trend

Plastmatch 2026-06-15 18:24:17

1. Today's Summary

This week, the prices of petrochemical factory listings have generally been stable with slight downward adjustments. The spot prices of various soft material grades have broadly decreased, while the prices of photovoltaic hard materials have remained stable and resistant to decline.

Maintenance-related production cuts are concentrated. Sinochem Quanzhou and Yangzi Petrochemical are undergoing major overhauls, while three units at Yanshan have been shut down for an extended period. Other production lines are operating steadily as scheduled, and overall supply remains ample.

The industry is in a loss-making state, with a gross profit margin of about 200 yuan/ton in reverse. The external ethylene market is weakening while domestic ethylene remains stable; trading of vinyl acetate is sluggish, and there is insufficient cost support.

The downstream foaming industry has entered the off-season, with limited growth in orders. Traders are selling at discounted prices to move cargo, and the transaction focus continues to edge downward. Weekly operating rates and output are both expected to decline.

II. Spot Market Overview

(1) Price changes diverged across different grades.

Soft-grade prices in Xiamen and Jiangsu were both cut by RMB 100/ton, while Yangba 5110M saw a larger decline, down RMB 300/ton in Xiamen and RMB 200/ton in Jiangsu. Prices for PV-specific 28-25 hard material remained unchanged. Xiamen Gulei USI-629 and Hongjing 6020M both fell to RMB 9,200/ton, Jiangsu Hongjing 6020M also stood at RMB 9,200/ton, Yangba 5110J was uniformly lowered to RMB 10,000/ton, and PV hard material remained stable at RMB 9,500/ton.

The overall market sentiment is sluggish, downstream factories show weak purchasing interest, and there is no large-scale restocking activity. To move inventory, holders are offering flexible concessions, with most actual transactions concluded at lower prices, while high-priced goods are difficult to sell in volume. At present, the mainstream range for both soft and hard materials is RMB 8,900–10,100/mt, while soft materials in South China are negotiated at RMB 9,000–10,200/mt.

(II) Upstream Raw Material Market Trends

External ethylene prices weakened, with CFR Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia both moving lower. Domestic ethylene offers from Sinopec and Jinshan Lianmao held steady at RMB 7,900/mt. Vinyl acetate traded rangebound, with non-calcium-carbide-based material at RMB 6,000–6,300/mt and calcium-carbide-based material at RMB 5,700/mt. Downstream buyers only followed up with small purchases on a need-to basis, and there was no significant increase in market transactions. Overall, the cost side was unable to provide strong support.

III. Production Updates

Multiple large-scale units continue to undergo maintenance, leading to reduced output. Sinopec Quanzhou and Yangzi Petrochemical are in major turnaround, and three units at Yanshan are under long-term shutdown; Tianli High-tech has also temporarily halted operations for three days. The remaining companies are maintaining stable production. Sirbon is producing by specification, Hongjing is separating output between photovoltaic and foaming grades, while Baofeng, Yanchang Yulin, and Gulei are each directing output toward their respective designated grades. The production reductions caused by maintenance are being offset by the stable operation of production lines, resulting in an overall loose supply situation.

Industry profitability is under pressure, with overall gross losses of around RMB 200 per ton. Even after lowering ex-factory prices, it remains difficult to reverse the loss-making situation. This week’s data show a slight decline in capacity utilization and expected weekly output, indicating a marginal contraction in supply, but this is not enough to offset the pressure from weak demand.

4. Price Forecasting

1. Short-term overall market outlook

The short-term EVA market maintains a weak oscillating trend, with a lack of upward momentum and limited space for significant declines.

Suppressing factors: Petrochemical ex-factory prices were stable with slight declines, dragging the market center downward; the off-season in the foaming industry was evident, with limited new orders from downstream and a slow pace of transactions; overall supply was ample, and traders showed a strong risk-averse sentiment in destocking.

Supporting factors: Continued maintenance of multiple units has led to a slight decline in operating output, causing a temporary reduction; demand for photovoltaic raw materials remains stable, and firm prices are providing a floor; domestic ethylene prices are steady, leaving no room for a sharp drop in costs.

2. Grade Differences Manifestation

Foamed soft-grade material can withstand greater pressure, with still some room for slight price concessions; demand for photovoltaic-specific hard-grade material remains stable, with minimal price fluctuations; imported high-melt grades have followed domestic products with a slight downward adjustment, and the price spread has narrowed slightly.

3. Risk Warning

If ethylene and vinyl acetate both surge significantly at the same time, rising costs may help support spot prices and halt their decline; if major photovoltaic encapsulant film producers make concentrated bulk purchases, the hard material market is likely to recover first; conversely, if plants under maintenance resume operations ahead of schedule, downward pressure will intensify. This analysis is based solely on fundamental factors and does not constitute trading or investment advice.

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[EVA Daily Review] Factory Prices Cut, Weak Demand, Market Moves In A Weak And Fluctuating Trend

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