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Dotp: Tight Decline in First Half, Expected Gradual Decline in Second Half

JLC 2025-08-05 17:02:20

Data Source: JLC

2025The first half of the year, domesticallyDOTPThe market is mainly in a downward trend, falling to recent low price levels in terms of price movement.DOTPThe market's downward trend is progressing rapidly within the phase, and the market is clearly affected by multiple negative factors.

For example, in the East China market, in the first half of the year.DOTPMarket average price8178 /Tons, compared to the average price in the first half of last year.10740 /Ton, drop2562 /tons, with a significant drop of23.85%。2025The peak position in the first half of the year8700 /Ton, appearing in1Month, low point location7600 / Ton, appears in5Month, High-Low Price Spread1100 /Ton, amplitude12.64%。

In detail, in the first half of the year, domesticallyDOTPMarket trends andDOPThe trend is generally consistent, significantly influenced by the transmission of raw material octanol.2Late in the month and3The end of the month,DOTPThe market is primarily downward, and after returning from the Spring Festival, downstream demand has not improved.DOTPThe negative demand outlook is constrained, the price of raw material isononyl alcohol has fallen, and cost transmission is also intensifying.DOTPSupply is abundant, exceeding demand.DOPAs a result, when actively shipping, the market continues to see an increase in low prices.

From late March to4At the beginning of the month,DOTPThe market has rebounded after hitting the bottom, but in the absence of significant improvement in demand.DOTPThe favorable cycle and space are both limited.4At the beginning of the month to5The beginning of the month,DOTPEntering a correction trend that lasted for over a month. External negative factors are hard to dispel, and the escalating tariff conflict between China and the US has severely dampened the purchasing sentiment of end-users and traders.DOTPMerchants face resistance in supply consumption, compounded by the transmission of raw material aspects.DOTPDuring a period when merchants are experiencing sluggish sales, discounting has become widespread, especially after returning from the May Day holiday.DOTPMerchants' inventories are generally accumulating, and at the time of clearing the inventory.DOTPThe decline has also accelerated.

Market trend reversal occurs at5 12The easing of tariff relations between China and the United States supports the market positively, combined with intentional hype by merchants.DOTPThe market is rising broadly in a short cycle. During this period, raw material isononanol andPTASimultaneously rising, but with a smaller increase.DOTPThe drawbacks of the rapid rise are gradually becoming apparent, and downstream is resistant to high prices.DOTPResistance sentiment is gradually developing, hence the market is experiencing a narrow range correction trend.6Month,DOTPThe market fluctuated within a narrow range. Although there was a phenomenon of low-price rebound driven by the rise in octanol, the subsequent impact of weakness in octanol will affect it.DOTPIt is also weakly volatile.

The second half of the yearDOTPThe market trend will continue to be passive, with cost and demand still being influential factors.DOTPThe main factors of fluctuation. With the expansion of production capacity for octanol in the second half of the year, supply will increase, potentially leading to a continued downward trend. End-user demand is unlikely to improve, and periodic purchasing will remain the norm.DOTPThe market lacks continuous trading conditions, so when both cost and demand lack assurance,DOTPThe market still has room to decline. However, considering the downtrend experienced in the first half of the year,DOTPThe market is already operating in a low range, so the pace of market decline may be slower than in the first half of the year.DOTPThe market is gradually declining, and there may be some rebounds during this period, but the amplitude will be limited. There might be expectations for a rally in the market during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October."

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Dotp: Tight Decline in First Half, Expected Gradual Decline in Second Half

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