Decoding the 2025 mid-year report of express delivery: How to Break Through the Value Gap Amidst the Dilemma of Increasing Volume and Decreasing Profits?

As the semi-annual reports of the courier industry are released, the relevant data is fully unveiled: business volume has steadily reached a historical high for the same period, and company revenues have collectively risen steadily. However, on the flip side of this revenue growth, the net income of almost all leading courier companies is declining, and the income per parcel has collectively fallen to its lowest point in nearly three years. The industry's peculiar phenomenon of "increased volume but reduced profit" and "inverted volume-price relationship" remains prominent.

What is even more surprising is that when the industry is experiencing significant profit pressure, the market value of traditional logistics companies has shown a general upward trend throughout the year. As of the time of writing, Shentong's stock price has increased by 73% year-to-date, J&T Express's Hong Kong stocks have risen by 58%, and SF Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express have also achieved positive returns.

Through multiple sets of contradictory data, the courier industry seems to have undergone some new changes in the long-term implementation of the theme of "anti-involution."

The dilemma of low-price volume exchange in the express delivery industry: Out of 7 companies, only 2 saw an increase in net profit.

According to data from the National Postal Administration, in the first half of 2025, the total volume of express deliveries nationwide reached 95.64 billion items, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. The business revenue exceeded 700 billion yuan, indicating a strong momentum in scale expansion.

However, behind the overall prosperity, the industry faces a collective dilemma of "increasing volume without increasing revenue": among the seven leading listed courier companies, only Jitu and Shentong achieved year-on-year growth in net profit, while the other five experienced profit contraction due to a decline in revenue per shipment.

As a quality benchmark in the logistics industry, SF Holding has maintained a strong growth cycle. In the first half of the year, its express logistics business volume grew by 25.7%, continuing to lead the industry; in particular, the growth rate reached 32.2% in the second quarter. Revenue growth was somewhat less robust, with a total revenue of 146.858 billion yuan representing a 9.26% increase. However, net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 19.4%, demonstrating the operational resilience of this quality leader.

ZTO Express maintained its industry-leading position with a business volume of 18.39 billion parcels, but pressures are emerging behind the growth: average revenue per parcel fell by 6.2% year-on-year, and market share dropped slightly by 0.26 percentage points to 19.23%. Affected by the “volume up, price down” trend, although total revenue hit a record high, its growth rate was significantly lower than that of business volume, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.6% to 3.932 billion yuan. More notably, in response to market changes, ZTO has lowered its annual business volume guidance in its financial report, projecting that the total number of parcels in 2025 will be between 38.8 billion and 40.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% to 18%. This indicates that both volume and price are under pressure.

YTO Express, firmly holding the second position in the industry, continued its steady growth momentum. In the first half of the year, its business volume increased by 21.79%, raising its market share by 0.32 percentage points to 15.54%, thereby reinforcing its position as the second in the industry. Ultimately, revenue grew by 10.19%, although the net profit attributable to shareholders also faced pressure, with the absolute profit pillar of the express business seeing a net profit decline of 8.8%.

It is worth affirming that its average revenue per ticket of 2.19 yuan ranks among the top comparable enterprises, reflecting both network resilience and strong pricing power; moreover, against the backdrop of continuously strengthening the "aviation + international" strategy and advancing long-term infrastructure projects such as Oriental Skyport, this performance remains sustainable.

The "old three competition" among the "Tongda system" has entered a white-hot stage. Yunda, which successfully held onto the third position, handled 12.726 billion parcels in the first half of the year, an increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 13.31%. However, behind this breakthrough, pressure on profitability is evident, with revenue increasing by only 6.8% in the first half of the year and net profit attributable to shareholders almost stalling, indicating that the path to defending the position is not easy.

In stark contrast, Shentong, which is making every effort to break into the top three, has become one of the rare examples of both revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year. During this period, its business volume increased by 20.73% to 12.348 billion parcels, and its market share rose by 0.15 percentage points to 12.91%, closely approaching the market share and business volume of Yunda.

What is even more commendable is achieving simultaneous profit growth while expanding in scale: in the first half of the year, its revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.02% and 3.73% respectively. Clearly, after four years of deep transformation, Shentong's growth resilience is entering a period of release. More excitingly, Shentong is attempting to enter the last-mile delivery and mid-to-high-end markets through the acquisition of Dainiao Logistics. If resource synergy and brand upgrading can be smoothly achieved, it may further break through in the second half of the year.

As a "dark horse" in the leading camp, Jitu, despite a slowdown in growth compared to earlier periods, remains the most prominent company in terms of growth elasticity. In the first half of the year, total revenue and adjusted net profit increased by 13.1% and 147.1% respectively. Behind this, the company has blossomed across multiple regions, with total package volume soaring by 27.0%, of which the package volume in the Chinese market continued to grow steadily by 20%, and market share slightly increased to 11.08%. The growth rates of the three core indicators—business volume, revenue, and profit—have all outpaced the industry average.

Overall, in the first half of the year, listed express delivery companies experienced varying degrees of growth in both business volume and revenue. However, another common issue cannot be ignored: the net profits of most companies declined under pressure, with only J&T Express and STO Express achieving growth against the trend.

Behind this lies the continuous decline in per-package revenue of listed courier companies, coupled with diminishing marginal returns from scale effects, which has increasingly highlighted the industry's problem of "low pricing to gain volume." At present, the widespread profitability issues may indicate that this unhealthy strategy of internal competition has long been unsustainable.

The logistics stock tier is rising: Traditional stocks are up, but tech stocks are even stronger?

How should express delivery companies break the dilemma of "increased volume but decreased profit" and "inverted volume-price relationship" in the second half of the year?

To answer this question, it is first necessary to gain a deep understanding of what logistics companies have already done in the dilemma between pricing and business volume.

In the first five months of this year, the average price of express delivery dropped to 7.5 yuan, a decrease of 8.2%. In the first quarter, the average price fell by 8.8% to 7.7 yuan, and from April to May, it further declined by 7.3% to 7.3 yuan. In some regions, there have even been extreme low prices of "80 cents nationwide," indicating that the downward pressure on prices is pervasive across the industry.

In terms of the revenue per parcel for enterprises, among the four major companies in the first half of the year, Zhongtong and Yunda have dropped below the 2 RMB mark, while SF Express and Jitu saw their revenue per parcel decrease by 12.2% and 11.8%, respectively. Ultimately, the decline in industry average prices has directly led to a collective decrease in gross profit margins for these traditional logistics companies, with many seeing their gross profit margins hit a three-year low.

In the midst of this predicament, logistics companies continue to strengthen their internal driving force. Throughout the first half of the year, logistics companies have generally upgraded in all aspects, including logistics network construction, fuel costs, route optimization, as well as automation and standardization, in order to achieve extreme control over the cost per shipment.

The related results are actually quite impressive. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the single-ticket costs for YTO Express, Yunda Express, and STO Express decreased by 4.3%, 3.2%, and 3.6%, respectively. J&T Express saw an even larger drop in single-ticket costs in the Chinese market, with a decrease of 12.5%, making it the company with the largest reduction among its peers during the same period. In contrast, ZTO Express was one of the few players whose costs slightly increased during the same period, with a minor rise of 0.04 yuan per ticket. However, due to its significant scale advantage in the early stages, its overall profitability in the first half of the year still leads among franchise-based courier companies.

In fact, in an era that prioritizes efficiency, with limited industry growth and a relatively mature and stable structure, the cost optimization space brought by economies of scale is gradually narrowing. Coupled with stricter regulations and generally rising labor costs, companies need more unconventional cost optimization methods to break through in terms of "profitability."

This can be seen from the differentiated stock performance of traditional logistics companies and logistics technology companies.

A simple review shows that traditional logistics listed companies have generally seen an increase in market value this year despite a decline in profits in the first half of the year: Shentong Express, with rising market share and net profit growth, has increased by over 73%, hitting a five-year high. Next is J&T Express, listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, with a cumulative increase of over 58% this year. Others, including YTO, SF Express, and Yunda, have also seen overall gains this year, although the growth rates vary.

In contrast, the stock price of Zhongtong Express, which continues to maintain the highest market share among the "Tongda System," has remained in a prolonged slump for years, but fortunately, the decline has started to narrow significantly.

The market value performance of leading players is commendable, but it cannot overshadow the fact that the delisting of Best Inc. and Dada amid intense long-term competition signifies that the elimination race among mid- and lower-tier companies remains brutal. The survival-of-the-fittest mechanism in the logistics sector will continue to unfold.

In stark contrast is the performance of logistics technology stocks. According to reports, as of the close of trading on September 4, the total market value of 11 logistics technology companies had risen by 64.33% this year, reaching 60.02 billion yuan, indicating a higher preference among investors for logistics technology stocks.

Source of the image: Tonghuashun - National Business Daily article

Although its scale is difficult to compare with traditional logistics industries, the efficiency premium brought by technology is highly recognized both inside and outside the industry.

In the second half, competing in "saving" means competing in "intelligence".

Technological empowerment is becoming the core new strategy for the logistics industry to break through from within, especially for second-tier and lower-tier companies like "Tongda Rabbit," whose logistics infrastructure network is somewhat inferior.

According to the interim report, Yunda has clearly stated that while waiting for the competitive environment to improve, it is advancing the development of its logistics capabilities through a dual approach of network construction and technological empowerment. In terms of its technology strategy, Yunda plans to build a "1+N+AI" digital system, invest in intelligent delivery equipment such as drones and unmanned vehicles, and create the "Yunda Intelligent Body" based on large model technology.

Shentong is also focusing on enhancing customer experience by upgrading the Shentong AI assistant and deepening the functions of the "Shenyin" communication platform, accelerating digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading to create differentiated product advantages. In terms of logistics network construction, in the first half of the year, Shentong invested in 56 sets of matrix narrow-band sorting equipment and 10 sets of loading narrow-band sorting equipment to reduce sorting costs.

J&T Express, which reported an "off-the-charts" profit growth this time, began piloting unmanned delivery vehicles in 2023 and plans to expand this initiative. Its substantial investment in automation equipment is already yielding results, with sorting costs per parcel in Southeast Asia dropping by 44% and in the Chinese market being optimized from $0.06 to $0.05. More importantly, as of now, its digital system has become the "logistics brain" supporting operations in 13 countries worldwide.

YTO Express is dynamically optimizing trunk routes based on the intelligent routing system, deepening the construction of self-driven lean centers to effectively enhance per capita efficiency, and precisely managing core costs such as transportation and center operations. The company will continue to increase R&D investment, accelerate the cultivation and expansion of technological productivity, promote intelligent development, and improve operational efficiency.

Leading company ZTO also emphasized the role of technology in enhancing its competitiveness in their financial report, and plans to continue advancing digital tools and automated vehicles. For instance, in sorting centers, they are developing 3D digital parallel models to reduce frontline management personnel by one-third, and decrease terminal sorting errors by 60%. They are applying AI for location selection and route design at the terminal; integrating AI after-sales support into customer service to lower operational costs. In terms of automated driving, they have deployed over 2,000 autonomous vehicles in 200 cities, reducing the per-package delivery cost from 0.12-0.15 yuan to 0.08 yuan. In the future, they plan to extend autonomous driving to 240 cities, with daily deliveries exceeding 200,000 packages.

SF Express also emphasized the "chassis" value and vision of technology in its annual report. Its "Fengzhi" large model (supply chain services) and "Fengyu" large model (employee services) have been widely applied: for example, in international logistics scenarios, the error rate in automatic standardization of item names decreased by 42%; the error rate in courier Q&A decreased by 58%; and the error rate in customer service form information extraction decreased by 52%, highlighting the value of vertical large models.

As companies independently seek to break out, progress is also being made in the industry's efforts to "counteract excessive internal competition."

Starting from July this year, the courier industry has responded to the national call to oppose low-price disorderly competition, with several provinces and cities following suit. Beginning in August, multiple courier companies in major courier-exporting provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang have initiated price adjustments for e-commerce customers. In Guangdong, a key region, the price adjustment for individual courier items ranges from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan, with a minimum price set at 1.4 yuan per package.

If the wave of price increases continues to materialize, it means that the upcoming industry prices may expand in two directions: horizontally (regionally) and vertically (in terms of the way prices are increased). At this stage, the "price involution" could naturally be resolved. According to calculations by Log Club, if prices rise by 0.1 yuan nationwide, the annual revenue of ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express could increase by 3.4 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan, and 2.39 billion yuan, respectively. If prices rise by 0.4 yuan, the corresponding revenue increase would be 13.6 billion yuan, 10.63 billion yuan, and 9.5 billion yuan. The significant elasticity of corporate performance brought about by a price increase of just 0.1 yuan is clearly evident.