[Daily PVC Review] Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations While PVC Fundamentals Remain Stable

1. Today's Summary

① Domestic PVC manufacturers have individually lowered ex-factory prices by 20-30 yuan per ton.

② The Zhenyang facility is expected to resume production within the week, while attention is on next week's maintenance of Jinchuan and Beiyuan. 。

③、 Qingdao Bay's new facility is preparing for startup and commissioning, while Bohua Development's new facility is expected to start by the end of the month. 。

2 Current Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic PVC Spot Prices (Yuan/Ton)

Based on the East China Changzhou market, the current cash and carry price of carbide-grade Type V in East China is 4,660 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. 。

The spot market price of PVC remained stable overall. In the morning, there were low-end inquiries and transactions in the market, while in the afternoon, the atmosphere was boosted by unconfirmed rumors related to the industry. However, transaction sentiment weakened during trading, as there was no change in the fundamentals of the spot market or expectations of any shift. In East China, the cash-and-carry price of carbide-based PVC Type 5 remains at 4,640-4,780 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC is at 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.

3、 Futures-spot basis

Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/ton)

The PVC basis for the January contract in East China is in the range of -100 to -200, and the basis continues to narrow.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3   PVC Inspection Device List

No new unit maintenance has been reported; during the week, a slight reduction in operating rates was observed at some individual enterprises. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Source of data: Longzhong Information	Source of data: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

As the weekend approaches, various unverified rumors are emerging in the market, affecting the related black industry sectors and intra-day market sentiment. Coupled with positive expectations for future financial policies, there is a strong bullish sentiment in intra-day prices. On the spot side, short-term maintenance impacts are expected to cause a slight decrease in output which will later rebound. With limited changes in additional production restrictions, and the domestic demand peak season arriving while export policy limits incremental growth, the overall supply-demand conflict is expected to slightly reduce, and the industry's inventory accumulation rate is anticipated to slow down. In the short term, cost support is relatively strong, and the fluctuation range of the PVC spot market is expected to be limited. The spot focus is under slight downward pressure, but there is a lot of policy-driven bullish sentiment. It is expected that the spot price of acetylene-based Type 5 in the East China region will range from 4,650 to 4,800 yuan/ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in the Wuhai region has increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, resulting in higher cost support. 。

Ethylene Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 840 USD/ton remains stable. CFR Southeast Asia 840 USD/ton up 5USD/ton, prices remain firm 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview