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[Daily PVC Review] Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations While PVC Fundamentals Remain Stable

Longzhong 2025-09-05 17:23:04

1. Today's Summary

① Domestic PVC manufacturers have individually lowered ex-factory prices by 20-30 yuan per ton.

② The Zhenyang facility is expected to resume production within the week, while attention is on next week's maintenance of Jinchuan and Beiyuan. 。

③、 Qingdao Bay's new facility is preparing for startup and commissioning, while Bohua Development's new facility is expected to start by the end of the month. 。

2 Current Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic PVC Spot Prices (Yuan/Ton)

Based on the East China Changzhou market, the current cash and carry price of carbide-grade Type V in East China is 4,660 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. 。

The spot market price of PVC remained stable overall. In the morning, there were low-end inquiries and transactions in the market, while in the afternoon, the atmosphere was boosted by unconfirmed rumors related to the industry. However, transaction sentiment weakened during trading, as there was no change in the fundamentals of the spot market or expectations of any shift. In East China, the cash-and-carry price of carbide-based PVC Type 5 remains at 4,640-4,780 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC is at 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.

Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 2 Domestic PVC Price Trends in Various Regions (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

3、 Futures-spot basis

Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/ton)

Region	The previous trading day	Today	Rise and fall	Month-on-month
East China (Contract 01)	-170	-150	20	11.76%
Data Source: Longzhong Information

The PVC basis for the January contract in East China is in the range of -100 to -200, and the basis continues to narrow.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 3 PVC Inspection Device List

Company Name	Process	Production Capacity (10,000 tons)	Remark	Device change	Recovery Plan
Taishan Salt Chemical	Calcium carbide method	10	Parking	September 29, 2022	To be determined
Shandong Dongyue	Calcium carbide method	13	Parking	March 25, 2023	To be determined
Wuhai Chemical	Calcium carbide process	40	Parking	July 23, 2023	To be determined
Gansu Xinrong	Calcium carbide method	20	Parking	July 12, 2023	To be determined
Cangzhou Julong	Ethylene process	52	Parking	September 20, 2024	To be determined
Suzhou Huasu	Ethylene process	13	Parking	April 26, 2025	To be determined
Haohua Yuhang	Calcium carbide method	20	Scheduled time off in mid-September
Gansu Jinchuan	Calcium carbide method	30	Starting shift rotation on September 10.
	Calcium carbide method	34	Udachny Plant Area Emergency Shutdown Due to Fault	August 29, 2025	September 4, 2025
	Ethylene method	30	Temporary Parking	August 19, 2025	September 7th
New Zhongjia	Calcium carbide process	30	Maintenance: 10-15 days	August 15, 2025	August 27, 2025
Inner Mongolia Junzheng	Calcium carbide process	34	September Overhaul at the Western Inner Mongolia Plant
Sino-Thai	Calcium Carbide Method	83	Huatai 19-29 maintenance for 6 days	August 19, 2025	August 29, 2025
Sea level	Calcium carbide method	40	Maintenance from late August to early September for 7-10 days
Formosa Plastics Ningbo	Ethylene method	40	Annual Maintenance	August 24, 2025	September 2, 2025
Sino-Thai	Calcium carbide method	55	Mahatma will undergo maintenance for 10 days in early September.
Taizhou Liancheng	Ethylene process	60	Annual maintenance, pending
Shaanxi Beiyuan	Calcium carbide method	110	Rest day	September 10, 2025	September 22, 2025

No new unit maintenance has been reported; during the week, a slight reduction in operating rates was observed at some individual enterprises. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price

Source of data: Longzhong Information	Source of data: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

As the weekend approaches, various unverified rumors are emerging in the market, affecting the related black industry sectors and intra-day market sentiment. Coupled with positive expectations for future financial policies, there is a strong bullish sentiment in intra-day prices. On the spot side, short-term maintenance impacts are expected to cause a slight decrease in output which will later rebound. With limited changes in additional production restrictions, and the domestic demand peak season arriving while export policy limits incremental growth, the overall supply-demand conflict is expected to slightly reduce, and the industry's inventory accumulation rate is anticipated to slow down. In the short term, cost support is relatively strong, and the fluctuation range of the PVC spot market is expected to be limited. The spot focus is under slight downward pressure, but there is a lot of policy-driven bullish sentiment. It is expected that the spot price of acetylene-based Type 5 in the East China region will range from 4,650 to 4,800 yuan/ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in the Wuhai region has increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, resulting in higher cost support. 。

Ethylene Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 840 USD/ton remains stable. CFR Southeast Asia 840 USD/ton up 5USD/ton, prices remain firm 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview

Data	Release Date	Previous period data	Trend Forecast
PVC utilization rate	Thursday 5:30 PM	77.13%	↘
PVC Weekly Production	Thursday 5:00 PM	46.20	↘
PVC production enterprise plant inventory	Thursday 5:00 PM	View Data Terminal	↗
PVC third-party social inventory	Thursday 5:00 PM	91.82	↗
PVC production enterprise export volume	Friday 12:00 AM	View data terminal	↘
Operating rate of downstream PVC product enterprises	Friday 5:00 PM	View Data Terminal	↗
Data source: Longzhong Information Remarks: 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations; highlight data dimensions with a price change exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ are considered narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall within the range of 0-3%.

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[Daily PVC Review] Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations While PVC Fundamentals Remain Stable

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