Countdown For India's Anti-Dumping Duties: China PVC Exports Seize Last Benefits

Background: Customs data shows that in September 2025, domestic PVC imports amounted to 14,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.08% and a year-on-year increase of 8.00%. The total imports from January to September were 175,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%. In September, PVC exports were 346,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.94% and a year-on-year increase of 24.53%, with cumulative exports reaching 2,921,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 50.58%. Exports to India totaled 163,400 tons, accounting for 47.17% of the total exports.

The total export volume of PVC in 2025 will see a significant increase, with competitive advantages compounded by regional demand effects.

According to Figure 1, China's PVC export volume has shown a continuous growth trend in recent years, from only 628,800 tons in 2020 to 2,921,500 tons from January to September 2025, with a compound growth rate of 36%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the compound growth rate may exceed 40%.

China's PVC export volume has been continuously increasing, mainly driven by changes in global supply and demand, enhanced competitive advantages of PVC, and demand growth coupled with favorable policies. At the beginning of 2021, the United States, the world's largest PVC exporting country, experienced widespread shutdowns of PVC facilities for 1-2 months due to a cold wave, leading to supply disruptions in many regions globally. China, relying on its status as the largest producer with the highest capacity, seized the opportunity for increased exports. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, global energy costs have fluctuated violently and increased, highlighting China's cost advantage in PVC. Combined with the quality advantages of Chinese PVC products, this has enhanced China's export competitiveness. In the same year, India's anti-dumping policy on PVC imports was terminated, leading the world's largest PVC importing country to increase its imports of Chinese PVC raw materials, resulting in record-high PVC export volumes from China.

India's demand combined with China's supply advantages has led to a rapid increase in import and export trade volume.

Benefiting from domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing expansion, India's economy has rapidly recovered from the pandemic's low point. By 2025, its GDP is expected to exceed $4 trillion, contributing approximately 18% to global economic growth, surpassing the United States' 11%. It is anticipated to become the world's third-largest economy in the next 2-3 years.

The rapid development of India's domestic economy has driven a significant increase in PVC raw material consumption. However, India's domestic PVC production capacity is limited, with over half of the PVC raw materials relying on imports. China has advantages in terms of scale, geographical proximity, product quality, and market prices for PVC. As a result, the import volume of PVC from China has increased alongside the rapid growth of the Indian market economy and demand.

Uncertainty in Indian policy may add variables to PVC exports.

From Figure 3, it can be seen that the changes in China's PVC volume in 2025 are largely consistent with the trend of export volumes to the Indian market. The months with higher total PVC export volumes in 2025 coincide with the months of highest exports to India. Additionally, from the timeline of India's PVC import policies, it is evident that policy impacts significantly influence PVC export volumes. To avoid the upcoming expiration of India's BIS policy on imported PVC on June 24, 2025, Indian customers increased their PVC import volumes from March to May. Moreover, India's traditional peak season for stocking in the first half of the year is concentrated from January to April, which offsets the impact of the peak season, further demonstrating the influence of policy-driven demand on the market.

In the second half of the year, to mitigate the impact of India's anti-dumping policy on PVC imports, the Indian market increased its procurement of PVC raw materials starting in July. This was especially after the announcement in August that anti-dumping duties on mainland China would be intensified (expected to be implemented in mid-November), leading to a significant increase in import volumes in September.

Looking ahead, the domestic PVC export market will face a window period for the implementation of India's anti-dumping duties on imported PVC from October to November. Once implemented, this will significantly affect the import source structure of PVC in India. According to the previous final ruling, the export of PVC originating from China to the Indian market will be greatly impacted. Moreover, as domestic PVC producers have not yet obtained BIS certification in India, whether the BIS policy can be postponed again by December 24 will also be a major challenge affecting domestic PVC exports to the Indian market. The uncertainty of these policies will directly impact domestic PVC exports.PVC MarketSigning and export shipment volume in November-December.