China's Plastic Export Evolution: Reducing Imports and Expanding Exports Trend Analysis

Introduction:As China’s plastics industry enters a period of capacity expansion, supply is increasing rapidly, with growth far outpacing demand. This has led to an intensifying supply-demand imbalance. While the continuous improvement in domestic product quality is facilitating import substitution, export volumes are also growing. "Going global" has become an effective way for China’s plastics industry to alleviate supply pressure.

Figure 1 Annual Capacity Change Trend of Synthetic Resin in China from 2020 to 2024 (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

As China's plastic production capacity continues to expand, global competition is intensifying, with the global capacity share reaching 34.74% by 2024. As China's plastic production capacity continues to expand, it is expected that the capacity share will continue to increase in 2025-2026, and the rapid enhancement of product sophistication will further boost China's global competitiveness in plastics.

Figure 2 Trend of Changes in the Production Capacity Structure of Synthetic Resin in China from 2020 to 2024 (10,000 tons/year)

From a product perspective, there is significant differentiation in domestic plastic capacity expansion products. Among them, ABS has the fastest growth rate at 118%, while PVC has the slowest growth at only 8%. From 2020 to 2024, China's overall plastic production capacity increased by about 38%. Among the main products, PP and PVC both grew at a rate below the average, while PP has the highest domestic plastic production capacity, accounting for 35.21%. The rapid growth of plastic production capacity in China has led to a sharp increase in supply pressure, with product quality continuously improving and price levels trending downward. Reducing imports and expanding exports has become a direct and effective way to ease supply pressure.

Figure 3 Comparative Analysis of China's Synthetic Resin Import and Export Volume in 2024 (10,000 tons)

In terms of import and export by product, there is significant variation. Among them, PE has the largest import volume, with a net import volume reaching as high as 13.0298 million tons in 2024. Despite the rapid growth of domestic supply, the low global capacity share and the prominent advantages of both capacity and quality in North America and the Middle East pose a challenge to domestic polyethylene products. The path to becoming a net exporter in the medium to long term is a long one. Since 2021, PVC has achieved a reversal to net import, reaching as high as 1.3554 million tons that year, and subsequently showing an increasing trend year by year, reaching 2.396 million tons in 2024 and is expected to reach 2.8297 million tons in 2025. The next product to transition from net import to net export will be polypropylene. In 2024, the import volume will be 1.2647 million tons. Domestic supply is ample and stable, and the rapid improvement in product quality is strongly substituting imports. The import volume and import dependency are rapidly declining. However, since the scale is still 3.6713 million tons in 2024, and with a high proportion of high-end materials and processing of imported materials, it is difficult to achieve complete substitution in the short term.

Figure 4 Trend of China's Synthetic Resin Export Volume from 2020 to 2024 (10,000 Tons)

From the perspective of export volume by product, China's plastics exports grew at an average rate of 45.6% from 2020 to 2024, reaching 6.2784 million tons in 2024. Among them, PVC firmly ranked first with 2.6259 million tons, and PP ranked second with 2.4066 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 83.4% and showing rapid export growth. The scale of other products is relatively small.

Based on the above analysis, as China’s plastic production capacity continues to expand and is expected to peak around 2026, its share of global capacity will keep rising, accelerating the process of globalization. Domestic manufacturers are actively pursuing differentiated, diversified, and high-end development strategies, rapidly enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese plastic products. Coupled with a continuous decline in price levels, this will strongly substitute imported products, leading to decreases in both import volume and import dependence. However, the volume of imports remains considerable and the proportion of high-end materials is relatively high. Furthermore, the processing trade model for imported materials cannot be replaced, so China’s plastic imports will remain at a significant scale in the medium to long term. While Chinese plastic products are substituting imports, companies are also actively expanding export channels. In addition to Southeast Asia, export destinations are becoming more diversified, including South Asia, Central Asia, South America, and Africa, and export volumes continue to grow rapidly. The transition of China’s plastics industry from a net importer to a net exporter is accelerating. Following PVC and PP, more products such as PS and ABS are also expected to achieve this reversal.