In February 2025, China's LDPE imports reached 331,000 tons, increasing by 40.72% year-on-year and 25.24% month-on-month. After the traditional Spring Festival holiday, some previously delayed orders arrived at the port successively. Coupled with the rapid rise in China's LDPE prices, the market outlook was optimistic, and the supply of overseas resources increased significantly, reaching a three-year high for monthly imports. According to customs data, the increase was more concentrated in major LDPE importing countries such as Iran, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The import value was 394.9 million US dollars, increasing by 52.92% year-on-year and 21.55% month-on-month. The average import price was 1,193 US dollars/ton, increasing by 8.68% year-on-year and decreasing by 2.94% month-on-month.

 

Data source:Jinlianchuang

From the perspective of China's LDPE domestic production and import supply from 2022 to 2025, domestic production supply remains relatively stable, while import volumes fluctuate significantly due to differences in price volatility between domestic and international markets as well as changes in the global supply and demand landscape. However, a similar trend is observed: after August 2024, both domestic production and imports of LDPE in China increased, with peaks reaching their highest levels in nearly three years. Analysis shows that in China, the price spread inversion between EVA and LDPE has led to some EVA production facilities, such as those operated by Xinjiang TLHI Petrochemical and Ningxia Baofeng, temporarily switching to LDPE production. On the import front, a loose overseas supply coupled with China's traditional peak season driving LDPE demand has prompted international exporters to increase resource allocation to the stable Chinese market.

 

Data source:Gin Lite Join

From the perspective of the relationship between LDPE import volume and price from 2022 to 2025, the correlation coefficient between the two is -0.18, indicating an overall negative correlation. Currently, the flow of international resources is not only driven by profits but also influenced by the overall supply and demand dynamics both domestically and internationally. As a major consumer of plastics, China remains one of the key destinations for overseas resources. In terms of the changes in China's LDPE import volume from 2022 to 2025, imports began to decline continuously after August 2023, with a steep downward trend, reaching below 200,000 tons per month by June 2024. However, from July-August 2024 onward, China's LDPE import volume shifted to a fluctuating upward trend. By February 2025, the monthly import volume of LDPE in China reached its highest level since 2022.

In March, China's LDPE prices experienced a rapid decline, coupled with maintenance at some overseas facilities and reduced operations in certain regions due to Ramadan, leading to limited supply pressure for overseas resources. As a result, China's LDPE imports are expected to decrease in March. On the export side, driven by weaker LDPE prices in China and increased supply pressure, LDPE exports are projected to rise.