Battery prices surge! ningde times' yichun lithium mine halts production, impact on the ev battery industry chain?

The lithium mining industry exploded this weekend.CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited)The Yichun mining area in Jiangxi has officially confirmed a production halt, with no plans for resumption in the short term.

In the early market today, downstreamBattery ETF(561910) opened higher and surged, with an intraday increase of over 1.5%. This ETF has the highest year-to-date gain among similar ETFs, nearly 8%, with an increase of 500 million shares in its year-to-date volume, attracting significant attention from investors.

So the question arises: Why does the shutdown of Ningwang Yichun lithium mine have such a significant impact on downstream power batteries?

It should be noted that, although the largest lithium production capacity currently comes from Chile, Ning Wang's Yichun mining area also has an annual capacity of 42,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with a monthly production of about 3,500 tons. This accounts for 20% of the total domestic lithium mica production capacity and 8% of the national monthly lithium carbonate production.

The suspension of Ningwang Lithium Mine this time is due to significant changes in approval authority, with stricter management of resource development from higher authorities, which is essentially part of the "anti-involution" policy. This means that other lithium mines in Jiangxi may also follow suit and suspend production based on this judgment.Caitong SecuritiesIt is estimated that the domestic monthly supply of lithium carbonate may decrease by 7,000-8,000 tons.

The following will have a significant impact on the power battery industry chain. PS: The solid-state battery, which has been active repeatedly this year, is a subdivision of the power battery.

The first is cost pressure.

The current spot price of lithium carbonate is approximately 73,000 yuan per ton. The market consensus is that the potential suspension event may drive the price of lithium carbonate up to 90,000-100,000 yuan per ton. The forecast indicates that in the coming days, the price may break through 80,000 yuan/ton, and then fall back to the 70,000-80,000 yuan/ton range.

Lithium carbonate accounts for approximately 40% of the cost of power batteries. According to industry estimates, for every 10,000 yuan/ton increase in lithium prices, the battery cost increases by about 5 yuan/kWh. If the subsequent price rises to 90,000 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a 23% increase over the current price, the battery cost will rise by about 8-10 yuan/kWh. This will directly affect the profit margins of battery manufacturers.

For example, for an electric vehicle equipped with a 60kWh battery, the battery cost may increase by 480–600 RMB. If this cost is fully borne by the battery manufacturer, it will definitely squeeze profits.

If CATL chooses to absorb the costs itself, for every increase of 10,000 yuan/ton in lithium prices, it willGross margin rate May decline by about 4% ( If battery companies do not want to absorb the costs internally and instead propose price increases to car manufacturers, the latter will face pressure from price wars, as power batteries often account for 30% of the total vehicle cost.

In the first half of the year, global electric vehicle battery installation data has been released: among the top ten companies, six are from China, namely CATL,BYD、China Innovation Aviation、Guoxuan High-Tech、EVE EnergyAmong them is SVOLT Energy. Moreover, the total market share of these six Chinese companies has reached 68.9%, accounting for nearly 70% of the global market, setting a new historical high since records began!

Among them, the battery ETF (561910), which has a strong representative nature for the sector,CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited)、Gotion High-Tech、EVE EnergyThe total weight is as high as 20%, and solid-state batteries account for more than 40% of the ETF.

The second is the high lithium price promoting other battery routes.

If lithium prices remain high for an extended period, the power battery industry is likely to face an accelerated trend of technological route adjustments, and sodium batteries are likely to become a major alternative direction.

Due to the lower raw material costs of sodium batteries, cost-sensitive energy storage or low-end electric vehicles will accelerate their transition to sodium batteries. Meanwhile, major battery manufacturers are also considering expanding their battery recycling efforts, as the cost of extracting lithium carbonate from recycled batteries is approximately 60,000 yuan per ton, which is cheaper than the current market price.

These two pointsBattery ETFThere are also many constituent stocks laid out in (561910), such asGrimmieBattery recycling,======== translates to "Lead Intelligent" in English.、Sinochem InternationalOther battery technologies may also benefit from this.

The fact that the 2025 (Second) China Solid State Battery Technology Industry Development Conference is being held in Hangzhou today may also serve as a catalyst for the sector. The battery industry might be at a relatively favorable entry point in its mid-stage development.