Basic Chemical Industry: New Refrigerator Standards Significantly Boost VIP Panel Demand, Focus on Saiter New Materials and Zaisheng Technology

The 2025 edition of the new national standard for refrigerators is driving the industry toward higher energy efficiency, larger capacity, and increased intelligence. On May 30, the State Administration for Market Regulation released the new national standard, "Limited Value of Power Consumption and Energy Efficiency Grades for Household Refrigerators," which will be officially implemented on June 1, 2026. The new standard significantly raises energy efficiency requirements, tightening the threshold for Grade 1 energy efficiency from a comprehensive efficiency index of ≤50% to ≤20%. As a result, most current Grade 1 products will be downgraded to Grade 3. The new standard introduces a comprehensive power consumption evaluation system and adds a correction factor for volume utilization rate, thereby increasing the effective volume of refrigerators.

The new standard promotes the industry's transformation towards high efficiency, energy saving, large space, and intelligence through multidimensional technological innovation indicators.

The new standard is expected to accelerate the penetration of VIP panels (Vacuum Insulation Panels). The current national subsidy policy focuses on first and second-level energy efficiency products. Producing first and second-level energy consumption refrigerators not only helps establish a company's brand but also qualifies for national subsidies, leading to a strong willingness for downstream production of first and second-level energy consumption products. The new standard significantly raises the limits for power consumption and the energy efficiency grade threshold for refrigerators, providing a volume utilization correction factor (Vs). Refrigerators using VIP panels gain dual advantages in energy efficiency calculations, making it easier to meet first and second-level energy consumption requirements. According to the Saiter New Materials public account, the thermal conductivity of VIP panel materials is less than 2.0mW/(m·K) (less than 1/6 of traditional materials), offering excellent insulation performance. A thickness of 12mm can replace a 60mm polyurethane layer, with benefits such as being thinner, smaller in volume, and lighter in weight. This not only meets the stringent energy consumption requirements of the new standard but also increases effective volume by 20%-30%, complying with the multi-dimensional index requirements of the new standard.

The penetration rate of domestic VIP panels is still relatively low, and there is potential for market expansion. In 2018, the penetration rate of VIP panels in China's refrigerator and freezer sector was only 3%, with the total output value of exported VIP panels amounting to approximately 2.5 billion RMB. Referring to overseas penetration rates, Japan's VIP panel penetration rate is as high as 70%, while the EU expanded VIP panel applications after raising standards in 2019. It is expected that there is significant room for improving the VIP panel penetration rate in China. In 2024, the domestic production of household refrigerators was 103.96 million units. Based on historical growth rates, assuming a domestic household refrigerator growth rate of +0.26%/+4.23%/+4.23%/+4.23% for 2025-2028, and if the VIP panel penetration rate reaches 50% by 2028, the potential market for domestic VIP panels could be 14.753 billion RMB, based on an average of 2.5 square meters of vacuum insulation panel (priced at 100 RMB/m²) used per refrigerator. The CAGR from 2018 to 2028 would be 19.42%.

It is recommended to focus on leading VIP panel companies in China, such as SaiTe New Materials and Risen Energy. 1) SaiTe New Materials is a leading VIP panel enterprise in China. According to the company's prospectus, in 2018, the company's market share in the domestic cold chain sales field exceeded 30%. The company has stable and high-quality customers, with 8 out of the top 10 global refrigerator manufacturers as its clients, and 6 having designated the company as their main supplier. By 2024, the company's VIP panel sales reached 9.97 million square meters, with a CAGR of 20% from 2019-2024. 2) Risen Energy is one of the first domestic companies to produce vacuum insulation panel core materials. The company relies on self-produced microfiber glass wool to produce VIP core materials. As of June 2022, the company's VIP core material production capacity is 10,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.62%. The company has established multiple superfine fiber cotton production lines, with an annual production capacity reaching 120,000 tons by 2024. On September 8, 2015, Risen Energy announced a joint venture with the well-known refrigerator manufacturer Panasonic to establish a subsidiary, Panasonic New Materials, in which Risen Energy holds a 49% stake. The subsidiary mainly produces vacuum insulation panels and related products.

Risk warning: The effect of industry policies does not meet expectations, VIP board demand is below expectations, trade risks, etc.

Source: Western Securities