In 2025, the trade-in policy continues to exert its influence, promoting the release of renewal demand for large home appliances, with air conditioners as a representative. On the other hand, with the moderate recovery of the global economy, overseas market demand is also growing. The latest data shows that in March 2025, air conditioner production saw double-digit growth. Under the "dual-wheel drive" of policies and markets, will the air conditioner market present new development trends?

Air Conditioner Production Sees Double-Digit Growth

Air conditioner production data has always been an important indicator of industry development. According to data from All View Cloud, in March 2025, the total production of the air conditioning industry reached 23.14 million units, with domestic sales production increasing by 10.6% year-on-year; export production increased by 9.3% year-on-year, showing impressive figures.

Specifically, in terms of domestic sales, as the Spring Festival holiday ends, market demand gradually warms up, and air conditioner companies plan to increase production. At the same time, the real financial support for trade-ins in 2025 has driven the prosperity of the home appliance market, represented by air conditioners, effectively promoting the increase in production by air conditioner companies. In March 2025, the domestic sales production of the air conditioning industry reached 12.39 million units, an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period last year.

Data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) shows that during the Spring Festival, nationwide consumer trade-in activities were carried out enthusiastically, with sales volumes of trade-ins for cars, home appliances, furniture, mobile phones, and other digital products reaching 8.6 million units (sets), with sales exceeding 31 billion yuan. Among these, home appliance sales revenue grew by about 166% year-on-year.

In terms of exports, the data shows that since 2020, China's air conditioner sales performance in overseas markets has continued to improve, strongly driving industry export production. Analysis suggests that as emerging overseas markets experience economic development and improved living standards, more families are choosing to update or add air conditioning equipment, leading the air conditioning industry into a new cycle of growth. In March 2025, the export production of the air conditioning industry reached 10.75 million units, an increase of 9.3% compared to the same period last year.

All View Cloud analysis believes that with the further recovery of the global economy and the continuous release of potential in emerging markets, air conditioner export production is expected to maintain a good growth trend. A research report from China Galaxy Securities suggests that with the recovery of overseas demand, early inventory stocking, the return of U.S. manufacturing, and the resumption of heat pump subsidies in Europe, the export of central air conditioners and heat pumps is expected to recover.

Dual-Wheel Drive of Policies and Markets

In 2025, the subsidy for trading in old appliances for new ones will be further strengthened and expanded. The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "2025 Intensified and Expanded Implementation of Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy," which clearly states that in terms of trading in old appliances for new ones, the number of eligible appliance categories for trade-in subsidies has increased from 8 types last year toSure, please provide the content that needs to be translated.

In 2025, the trade-in policy continues to gain momentum, driving the release of demand for updates in major household appliances, represented by air conditioners. On the other hand, with the moderate recovery of the global economy, demand in overseas markets is also growing. The latest data shows that in March 2025, air conditioner production saw a double-digit increase. Under the "dual-wheel drive" of policies and the market, will the air conditioner market present a new development trend?

Air conditioner production sees a double-digit growth

Air conditioner production data has always been an important barometer of industry development. According to All View Cloud, in March 2025, the total production of the air conditioning industry reached 23.14 million units, with domestic sales production increasing by 10.6% year-on-year; export production increased by 9.3% year-on-year, showing impressive figures.

Specifically, in terms of domestic sales, as the Spring Festival holiday comes to an end, market demand gradually warms up, and air conditioner companies plan to increase production. At the same time, the substantial support from the 2025 trade-in policy has fueled the boom in the home appliance market, led by air conditioners, effectively promoting increased production by air conditioner companies. In March 2025, the domestic sales production of the air conditioning industry reached 12.39 million units, a 10.6% increase over the same period last year.

Data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) shows that during the Spring Festival, the nationwide trade-in activities for consumer goods were carried out enthusiastically, with the trade-in sales volume of cars, home appliances, furniture, mobile phones, and other digital products reaching 8.6 million units (sets), and the sales amount exceeding 31 billion yuan. Among them, the revenue from home appliance sales grew by about 166% year-on-year.

In terms of exports, data shows that since 2020, the sales performance of China's air conditioners in overseas markets has continuously improved, strongly driving the export production plans for the industry. It is analyzed that, as the economy develops and living standards improve in emerging overseas markets, more families choose to update or add air conditioning equipment, thus entering a new growth cycle for the air conditioning industry. In March 2025, the export production plan for the air conditioning industry reached 10.75 million units, a 9.3% increase compared to the same period last year.

According to All View Cloud Network, with the further recovery of the global economy and the continuous release of potential in emerging markets, the export production of air conditioners is expected to maintain a good growth trend. A research report by China Galaxy Securities believes that, with the revival of overseas demand, forward stocking, the return of manufacturing to the US, and the resumption of heat pump subsidies in Europe, the exports of central air conditioning and heat pumps are expected to recover.

Policy and market dual-driven

In 2025, the subsidy for trading in old appliances for new ones will be further strengthened and expanded. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "2025 Large-Scale Equipment Update and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policy Expansion Plan," which clearly states that, in the area of trading in old appliances for new ones, the number of eligible appliance categories for subsidies will increase from 8 types last year to 12 types in 2025, adding microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers. Each item can enjoy a maximum subsidy of 20% of the sales price. Considering the actual needs of household consumers, the maximum number of air conditioner products per consumer that qualify for the subsidy has been increased from 1 to 3, with each item receiving no more than 2000 yuan in subsidy. Additionally, consumers who received a subsidy for a certain type of appliance through a trade-in program in 2024 can still receive a subsidy this year if they purchase the same type of appliance again.

Industry analysts believe that the further increase in air conditioner subsidy policies, raising the maximum number of units per consumer from 1 to 3, can effectively stimulate the demand for air conditioner replacements, benefiting air conditioner consumption in 2025. On the other hand, even though the 2024 subsidy implementation was after the peak season for air conditioner sales, air conditioners still achieved growth, with production line data showing that in December 2024, both production and sales grew by more than 30% year-on-year. The driving effect of national subsidies is evident, becoming the main reason for the full-year growth of the domestic market. Industry experts believe that entering 2025, with the continuation and enhancement of the trade-in program, the momentum that was not fully released in 2024 is expected to be further unleashed. For air conditioner companies, having last year's performance as a reference, they can also better plan and prepare.

In terms of the broader environment, the Central Economic Work Conference held previously proposed to "continuously push for the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market" and "fully unleash the potential of rigid and improved housing demands." Analysts believe that 2025 is the concluding year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and a critical year for China's promotion of high-quality development. Recently, many regions have introduced a new round of policies to stabilize the property market, including increasing support for home purchases through housing provident funds, promoting shared ownership housing, and housing trade-ins. With the continuous efforts of these policies, the future development of the real estate market will continue to recover. As an important downstream industry of real estate, the air conditioning sector is expected to benefit first.

Enterprises Actively Launching New Products and Expanding Capacities

In order to better compete for the air conditioner market, many enterprises have been actively making moves recently.

On March 3, Midea Air Conditioning held a new product launch event led by full AI, officially releasing the Fresh and Clean Air Machine T6, the first smart air conditioning product equipped with the DeepSeek large model. On February 27, Xiaomi officially launched its first central air conditioning product - the Mi Home Central Air Conditioning Pro. Prior to this, Lu Weibing, a partner of Xiaomi Group, president, president of the mobile phone department, and general manager of the Xiaomi brand, stated that the Mi Home Central Air Conditioning would directly benchmark Daikin air conditioners. After the release of the Mi Home Central Air Conditioning Pro, Wu Qingzhuang, the head of home air conditioning R&D at Xiaomi Group's major appliances division, posted that the Mi Home Central Air Conditioning Pro had received recognition far exceeding expectations and was already in urgent restocking. Information shows that the Mi Home Central Air Conditioning Pro provides multiple versions including 5 horsepower, 6 horsepower, and large 6 horsepower, covering configurations from 1-to-3 to 1-to-5, with a starting price of 15,999 yuan. On February 22, Haier Air Conditioning released a series of AI technology and AI air conditioning new products, under which brands such as Casarte, Haier, and Leader all showcased their unique air solutions.

Recently, the structural topping out of the Xiaomi Intelligent Home Appliance Factory located in the Donghu High-tech Development Zone of Wuhan City has been achieved. According to the plan, phase one of the project will build a smart manufacturing demonstration factory for household air conditioners, scheduled to officially start production in November 2025 and enter mass production in 2026. On January 24, Aux Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. and Nanhai District People's Government signed a cooperation framework agreement on the Aux 8 million sets of intelligent household air conditioning production base project. The total investment of the project is 5.5 billion yuan, and after full completion, it is expected to reach an annual capacity of 8 million sets, with an annual output value potentially breaking 10 billion yuan. In December last year, the groundbreaking ceremony for the TCL Air Conditioning Guangzhou Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park was held at the Gangkou Zhizao Base in Dagan, with phase one planning and construction land of 303 mu, a total investment of no less than 1.6 billion yuan, and an expected addition of 8 million sets of air conditioning capacity within 3 years, achieving an industrial output value of 10 billion yuan/year.

Li Tao, chief editor of Home Appliance Network, stated that by 2025, the dual engines of policy and market are driving the industry into a fast lane. On the domestic sales front, the continuous increase in subsidies for replacing old appliances with new ones, along with the gradual recovery of the real estate market, will inject long-term momentum into air conditioner consumption; on the export side, the rising demand for home appliances in emerging markets is opening up new spaces for the global layout of Chinese air conditioners. It can be anticipated that the air conditioner market in 2025 will exhibit a strong trend of both domestic and international demand resonance.