2025 5G Mobile Phone Industry In-Depth Research and Development Planning Analysis

As the number of global 5G base stations surpasses 5 million, the price of foldable smartphones drops to the 3,000 yuan range, and AI large models begin to deeply integrate into mobile operating systems, the 5G smartphone industry in 2025 is undergoing a qualitative transformation from a single communication tool to an "intelligent mobile terminal + digital ecosystem gateway." The latest "2025-2030 Global 5G Smartphone Industry Market In-depth Analysis and Development Planning Consulting Comprehensive Research Report" released by the Zhongyan Puhua Industry Research Institute points out that global 5G smartphone shipments will increase from 1.8 billion units in 2025 to 3.2 billion units by 2030, with the Chinese market maintaining a stable share of over 35%. Meanwhile, the industry's value focus is shifting from hardware manufacturing to ecosystem services.

1. Current State of Market Development

1.1 The global market shows a pattern of "rising in the East and declining in the West."

China, India, and Southeast Asia have become growth engines. According to data from CIEH, the penetration rate of 5G phones in China will exceed 75% in 2024. In the Indian market, due to aggressive subsidies from operators such as Reliance Jio, the share of 5G phones will jump from 12% in 2023 to 45% in 2025. In the European and American markets, operators are gradually canceling 5G plan subsidies, forcing manufacturers to enhance product premium capabilities through technological innovation—Apple's iPhone 17 series, equipped with Satellite Communication 2.0 technology, enables video calls without ground network coverage, driving the market share of its high-end models back up to 28%.

1.2 Foldable Phones: From "Novelty" to "Mainstream"

Technological breakthroughs have sparked a price revolution. In 2024, models such as the Huawei Mate X5 and Samsung Galaxy Z Fold6 have brought foldable phone prices down to the 8,000-yuan range, a 60% decrease compared to first-generation products. The key driver is the increased maturity of the industrial supply chain: BOE has developed a "nano-silver wire + UTG glass" composite screen with a bending lifespan exceeding one million cycles; hinge technology has advanced to "waterdrop 2.0," reducing the gap when folding to just 0.1 mm. According to China Research Puhua, foldable phone shipments are expected to reach 120 million units in 2025, accounting for 35% of the high-end market (over $600).

Honor foldable phone (Image source: Honor)

1.3 AI Large Models Reshape the Paradigm of Human-Computer Interaction

Edge AI deployment has become a new battleground. Chips like Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen4 and MediaTek Dimensity 9400 integrate NPU computing power exceeding 100 TOPS, supporting local operation of large models with 7 billion parameters on smartphones. Xiaomi's Surge OS 2.0 "AI Assistant" can automatically generate meeting minutes and intelligently plan itineraries; vivo's Blue Core large model achieves "seamless wake-up"—when users pick up their phones, the system preloads frequently used apps based on usage habits. This transformation is reshaping user engagement: users with AI-enabled phones see an increase of 1.2 hours in daily usage time.

2. Industry Chain Restructuring

2.1 Breakthrough in Upstream Materials to Overcome "Chokepoint" Challenges

The domestic supply chain is rising comprehensively. In the chip sector, SMIC's N+2 process has achieved a yield rate exceeding 85%, providing a 7nm process alternative for brands like Huawei and Honor. Yangtze Memory's Xtacking 3.0 technology enables UFS4.0 storage chips to reach read and write speeds of 4.2GB/s, a 20% improvement over overseas competitors. In the display sector, TCL China Star Optoelectronics Technology has developed "polarizer-free" OLED technology, reducing screen power consumption by 30%, which has been applied to the OPPO Find X8 series. More advanced explorations are underway: a laboratory has developed a "graphene cooling film" with a thermal conductivity of 1500 W/m·K, five times that of traditional copper foil.

2.2 Intelligent Upgrading of Midstream Manufacturing

The "dark factory" has revamped its production logic. The Foxconn Zhengzhou campus has built a fully 5G-connected factory, utilizing digital twin technology to dynamically adjust production lines. When a shortage of a certain model of camera module is detected, the system automatically switches the idle production line to an alternative supplier's plan, reducing the order delivery cycle by 40%. In the quality control phase, the AI visual inspection system can identify screen defects at the 0.01mm level, reducing the defective product outflow rate to 0.003%. These transformations are strongly supported by policy: the government provides a 30% equipment subsidy for smart manufacturing demonstration projects, and a certain province offers VAT reductions for companies undergoing digital transformation.

2.3 Expansion of Downstream Application Scenarios

5G and AI are fostering new consumption patterns. In the entertainment sector, Tencent's "Yuan Meng Zhi Xing" and other cloud games enable "click-to-play," allowing users to play without downloading installation packages larger than 10GB. In health management, the Honor Magic7 series features "seamless vital signs monitoring" technology, which uses millimeter-wave radar to detect heart rate and breathing frequency in real time, with an error rate of less than 2%. More noteworthy is the enterprise-level market: a logistics company has equipped 5,000 couriers with 5G private network phones, combined with AR glasses to achieve a fully digital process of "one-click scanning - route planning - anomaly reporting," increasing delivery efficiency by 35%.

3. Future Market Outlook

3.1 Communication Technology Enters the "5.5G Era"

According to China Research Institute, it is predicted that 5G-A (5G-Advanced) will begin commercial use in 2026, with its downlink rate exceeding 10Gbps and latency reduced to below 1ms. This will drive two major transformations: first, the "integrated sensing and communication" capability, where smartphones can perceive changes in the surrounding environment and act as cooperative nodes in autonomous driving scenarios; second, the support for "passive IoT," enabling low-power communication by reflecting 5G signals in the environment, which may be applied to smart wearable devices in the future. On the policy front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to build 1 million 5G-A base stations by 2027, focusing on coverage in industrial parks, transportation hubs, and other scenarios.

3.2 Morphological Innovation Breaks Through Physical Limits

Wearable phones are becoming a new species. A certain brand's "wristphone" concept product features a flexible screen with a scroll design; when unfolded, it is a 7-inch tablet, and when folded, it takes the form of a smartwatch. Huawei is exploring a "brain-computer interface phone" that uses non-invasive sensors to capture brainwaves, enabling "mind-controlled" photography and messaging. These innovations are reshaping the industry's value distribution—profits from selling screen modules by a certain foldable screen manufacturer now account for 45% of the total device profit.

3.3 Ecological Competition Replaces Hardware Involution

The "Mobile + AI + IoT" super terminal model is taking shape. The Xiaomi SU7 car features "seamless phone-to-car interface" technology, allowing users' mobile applications to automatically project onto the central control screen when they get in the car, and unfinished tasks continue on the phone after getting out; Apple's Vision Pro deeply integrates with the iPhone, enabling virtual screens to leverage the phone's computing power. Zhongyan Puhua believes that by 2030, revenue from ecosystem services will account for more than 30% of total revenue for mobile phone manufacturers, with new business models such as software subscriptions and digital content revenue sharing becoming mainstream.

The 5G mobile phone industry has transcended the boundaries of communication equipment and evolved into a crucial hub connecting the digital world with physical life. According to the China Research and Development Industry Research Institute, the next five years will be a critical period for reshaping the industry landscape. Companies need to possess underlying technological innovation capabilities (such as chips and materials), scenario-defining capabilities (foldable screens, AI applications), and ecosystem integration capabilities (vehicle-machine connectivity, IoT collaboration) in order to secure a place in the market feast of 3.2 billion units.

For investors, three major sectors deserve focused attention: first, the 5G-A related industry chain, including millimeter-wave chips and integrated sensing modules, with the market size expected to exceed 80 billion yuan by 2027; second, the foldable screen materials field, where sub-segments such as UTG glass and hinge MIM parts are growing at a rate of 45%; third, the AI smartphone ecosystem, where manufacturers capable of deploying large models on the edge have profit margins 10-15 percentage points higher than traditional companies. In this era of profound transformation, only enterprises that wield innovation as their spear and ecology as their shield can navigate through cycles and sail toward the industrial blue ocean.