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Weak Demand in Downstream Market Continues to Weigh on Recycled PET Amid Rigid Cost of Bottle Grade PET

Plastmatch 2026-06-29 14:18:12

I. Market Overview

In late June 2026, the domestic recycled PET bottle flake market showed...Raw material costs remain firm, while demand for finished products continues to weaken.The reverse pattern of the market has led to a continuous decline in spot prices, with only sporadic transactions driven by essential demand, and a complete absence of bulk procurement orders. Data from Longzhong Information's industry chain monitoring indicates three core contradictions within the industry: the tightening supply of recycled PET bottles and bottle bricks is driving up procurement costs; profits for recycled flake processing enterprises continue to be negative, leading to a sustained decrease in industry operational rates; and downstream fiber and preform factories show weak purchasing intentions during the off-season, resulting in a continued narrowing of the price gap between virgin and recycled PET, diminishing the cost-performance advantage of recycled materials. During the same period, virgin polyester bottle chips have shown weak fluctuations, lacking upward momentum, confirming a pressured operating pattern for recycled PET this week.

Market transactions are mainly characterized by small-scale, scattered purchases, with large orders in the thousand-ton range virtually nonexistent. Bottle washing factories, recycled chip factories, and traders are all following the market trends without any proactive price increases, resulting in a strong atmosphere of caution across the entire industry chain.

2. Supply Side: Tightening Availability of Maoping Bottles and Firm Costs, with Continued Decline in Industry Operating Rates

1. Recycling stage of waste vials

In June, domestic soft drink consumption entered a stable phase, with no additional increase in the volume of end-of-life PET bottle collection. Recycling stations cut back shipment volumes, and the available supply of baled bottles and bottle bricks in circulation continued to tighten. In the East China and South China beverage consumption hubs, inventories of baled bottles were slightly ample, but recyclers uniformly raised purchasing prices; in northern and inland regions, retail sellers showed weak trading willingness, while cross-regional transportation logistics costs continued to rise rigidly. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, the procurement price of waste PET feedstock has formed a rigid floor, directly locking in the production cost of recycled flakes, and squeezing processing margins further.

According to Longzhong’s spot market monitoring on June 26, the mainstream purchase price for pure white bundled bottle flakes was RMB 4,800-5,300/ton, and for blue-white mixed bottle flakes was RMB 4,400-4,900/ton. Recycling costs rose by RMB 120-180/ton compared with the same period in May, with no room for decline.

2. Recycled PET chip processing enterprise

Mainstream domestic recycled PET washing and chip plants are generally operating at a loss. High-priced feedstock cannot be passed on to downstream buyers, so companies are proactively reducing production loads to limit losses. The average operating rate in the recycled PET industry remains stable at 36%. Large integrated producers with stable collection channels and in-house fiber capacity are maintaining operating loads of 52%–58%. Small and medium-sized independent bottle-washing plants and chip producers are cutting production as needed and are not building inventory.

Inventory: Finished recycled PET chip inventories remain at a neutral-to-high level. The average inventory coverage of finished goods held by processors and traders is 9.2 days, and continued destocking pressure exists, further limiting upside room for quotations. There is no logic for concentrated restocking in the market, and the inventory side continues to exert downward pressure.

Demand Side: Downstream demand for chemical fiber is sluggish in the off-season, and the narrowing price gap between new and recycled materials reduces purchasing attractiveness.

June to August each year is traditionally the off-season for polyester downstream demand. Quantitative terminal monitoring data from Longzhong Information confirms the weakening demand: the average operating rate of the polyester staple fiber industry was 71.3%, down 5.2 percentage points month-on-month; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 59%, also declining month-on-month. Shipments of finished woven products were slow, and chemical fiber companies strictly controlled raw material inventories, all adopting a just-in-time purchasing model with no advance stockpiling. Bottle-grade chip and packaging injection molding companies, under pressure from virgin PET prices, continued to show reduced acceptance of high-priced recycled chips.

The key bearish factor is the continued narrowing of the price spread between virgin and recycled materials: as of June 26, the spot price of virgin water-bottle-grade polyester bottle flakes in East China was RMB 7,580/tonne, while conventional fiber-grade recycled blue-and-white bottle flakes were RMB 4,700–4,800/tonne. The price spread narrowed to RMB 2,780/tonne, down RMB 160/tonne from early June. This weakened the cost advantage of recycled materials, prompting downstream enterprises to increase the proportion of virgin material procurement and further diverting demand away from recycled PET.

At the policy level, national standards for plastics recycling and the requirements for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are long-term positives for closed-loop applications of food-grade rPET. However, at this stage, production line upgrades by downstream packaging and daily chemical companies, as well as carbon footprint certification, take 3–6 months. As a result, the release of new orders for compliant recycled bottle flakes is gradual, which can only prevent prices from falling sharply and cannot drive a market rebound this week.

4. Summary

This week's recycled PET market will remain stable.Rigid bottom support from raw bottle costs, while downstream off-season demand continues to weigh on the market.In the weak equilibrium state, prices are difficult to escape from the current weak fluctuation range. Industry chain participants need to continuously track three core variables: the fluctuation of primary polyester spot and futures prices, the timing of the transition between the peak and off-peak seasons in downstream textiles, and the progress of the food-grade rPET recycling policy implementation. After the concentrated stocking period in late August, the supply-demand conflict for recycled PET is expected to ease, and there may be a possibility of marginal recovery in the market.

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Weak Demand in Downstream Market Continues to Weigh on Recycled PET Amid Rigid Cost of Bottle Grade PET

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