The Bottle Chip Dilemma Under the Straits' Gunpowder Smoke: Geopolitical Games Behind May's Polyester Bottle Chip Import and Export Data

In May 2026, China's polyester bottle chip import and export data presented a "double decline" report—exports reached 579,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.69%; imports were only 3,200 tons, plummeting by 28.7% month-on-month. Behind the numbers lies the ongoing turmoil in one of the world's busiest shipping routes, as well as the industry's challenging balance between high cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainties.

1. Strait of Hormuz: The "Opening" and "Closing" of a Waterway

The Strait of Hormuz, the route through which about 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, is also the key channel for Middle Eastern petrochemical products bound for Asia. In May 2026, this waterway became the most unpredictable variable in the global polyester supply chain.

On May 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it was enforcing “comprehensive and powerful” control over the strait, with 26 merchant ships transiting under Iranian coordination in the previous 24 hours. Three days later, on May 31, the number of transits rose to 28. Beneath these seemingly calm transit figures, however, undercurrents were surging. According to Lloyd’s List, a British shipping media outlet, disruptions to passage through the strait caused very low sulfur fuel oil prices at the world’s top 20 bunkering hubs to soar 68% from mid-February levels, while high-sulfur fuel oil prices rose 66%. Denmark’s Maersk Group said the strait crisis was adding about $500 million a month to the company’s fuel costs.

What further unsettles the shipping industry is the "gray area" of passage order. Some vessels have turned off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) and taken risks to evade exposure risks amid the U.S.-Iran military standoff. On May 24, it was revealed that the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding, planning to restore shipping in the Strait within 30 days. However, the dawn of peace quickly faded—on June 20, Iran announced again a ban on vessel passage through the Strait, citing violations of the ceasefire agreement by the U.S. and Israel.

"Between 'open' and 'close', global shipping costs and the rhythm of the supply chain have been completely disrupted."

2. Cost Pressure Mounts: Tightening PTA Supply Ignites the Fuse for Price Increases

The shockwaves from the cross-strait turmoil were first transmitted to the source of the polyester industry chain—PTA (purified terephthalic acid).

In May 2026, the operating rate of China’s PTA industry fell below 60%, hitting a nearly decade-low level. This low operating rate was not caused by weak demand, but rather by the combined impact of multiple supply-side contractions: raw material shortages forced some units to shut down, while the industry entered its annual peak maintenance season in May, with planned maintenance capacity nationwide reaching 19.5 million tonnes, accounting for more than 20% of total capacity. Since mid-April, PTA social inventories have declined for six consecutive weeks, with the supply-demand gap continuing to widen.

PTA supply tightening has triggered a chain reaction. PX (paraxylene) is entering a concentrated maintenance period from May to July, with major units such as Zhongjin Petrochemical, Hainan Refining & Chemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical successively shutting down, further tightening global PX supply. Analysts point out that even with the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, there is a time lag from production and transportation of overseas raw materials to their arrival domestically, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the overall tight supply situation of polyester raw materials in the short term.

The pressure on the cost side was clearly reflected in the price of PET bottle-grade flakes. In early May, spot prices in East China for water bottle-grade material were 8,500–8,700 yuan/ton, rising to 8,900 yuan/ton in mid-month. Although prices fell back to 8,000–8,300 yuan/ton in late May as crude oil retreated, the monthly fluctuation reached 12%. Operating rates in the PET bottle flakes industry remained around 72.8%, at a historical low for the same period.

III. Data Breakdown: The “Wait-and-See Logic” Behind 579,000 Tons of Exports

Against the backdrop of soaring costs, the demand side has responded with caution and a wait-and-see attitude.

In May 2026, China exported 579,000 tons of PET bottle chips, down 3.69% month on month and 6.46% year on year. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 2.701 million tons, up only 0.18% year on year. Imports were even more dismal—May imports totaled 3,200 tons, plunging 28.7% month on month. Although still up 51.09% year on year, the absolute volume was negligible. Net exports stood at 575,800 tons, down 3.5% month on month.

The direct driving force behind the decline in data is "cautious stocking due to cost pressure." High raw material prices have led downstream players to maintain only essential inventory, resulting in a decline in import volumes. The market's expectation of a relaxed supply in the future has further suppressed purchasing enthusiasm.

The structural characteristics of export destinations are worth noting. In the first three months of May, the top three export countries were Indonesia (43,600 tons), Russia (33,500 tons), and Nigeria (28,400 tons), with a total of 105,600 tons, accounting for 18.23% of total exports. In terms of export prices, Indonesia was priced at $1,102 per ton, Russia at $1,099 per ton, and Nigeria at $1,100 per ton, showing close price proximity. Regarding export trade methods, general trade accounted for 53.05%, while processing trade accounted for 45.98%. In terms of registration locations, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Liaoning provinces together exported 338,100 tons, accounting for 58.4%, highlighting the regional concentration of polyester bottle chip exports.

Import volume and average import price trend of polyester bottle chips in China (ton, USD/ton)

IV. Industrial Background: The Dual Constraints of Low Inventory and High Export Dependence

Beneath the short-term fluctuations in import and export data, the structural characteristics of the polyester bottle-chip industry impose deeper constraints.

On the one hand, industry inventories are at an extremely low level. Since early April, inventories at bottle-grade PET chip plants have continued to decline, with available inventory days once dropping to 6 days, a multi-year historical low. In May, in-plant inventories stood at 8.86 days, still at a low level. Low inventories provide strong downside resistance for bottle-grade PET chip prices, but also mean that any supply-side disruptions could be magnified.

On the other hand, its reliance on exports is extremely high. In 2025, China’s bottle-grade PET exports reached 6.45 million tons, accounting for 36.8% of domestic output and roughly 50% of global trade volume. Export destinations cover more than 100 countries and regions worldwide, with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Russia among the major markets. This high degree of export dependence makes China’s bottle-grade PET industry highly sensitive to changes in global shipping order and geopolitical developments—a disturbance in a single strait can be enough to disrupt the operating rhythm of a multi-million-ton industry.

At the same time, the global supply shortage has yet to ease. Overseas bottle-grade PET facilities, such as Indorama, have encountered force majeure, and the global supply gap caused by raw material shortages persists. As the largest producer of bottle-grade PET, China’s export-prioritization strategy has kept domestic circulating supply tight.

V. Looking Ahead: The 540,000-Ton Outlook and Greater Uncertainty

Based on current data, the market's expectations for polyester bottle chip imports and exports in June are relatively conservative: imports are expected to be around 3,000 tons, while exports are expected to be around 540,000 tons. With a significant increase in supply and downstream demand mainly driven by just-in-time restocking, import and export volumes are expected to remain weak.

However, what deserves more attention than the monthly data is geopolitics—the biggest “unquantifiable variable.” After Iran once again announced on June 20 that the Strait would be closed to navigation, the number of vessels passing through the waterway fell sharply. Iranian military sources said the Strait remains closed, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is not issuing passage permits to any vessels. Geopolitical risk experts warned that even if the United States and Iran ultimately reach an agreement, it would only provide “temporary relief”; the Strait of Hormuz is shifting from closure to conditional passage, and this mode of access will become “more politicized.”

For the polyester bottle flake industry, the data from May 2026 may be only the beginning. When the opening and closing of a waterway is no longer determined by shipping efficiency but becomes a bargaining chip in geopolitical games, when the cost curve is no longer shaped by supply and demand but written by missiles and diplomatic notes, this industry—highly dependent on globalization—is being forced to learn how to survive amid uncertainty.

编辑：Winnie