Policy tone and performance turning point: Autonomous Driving Track Enters "Strong Expectation" Channel

On the morning of February 13th, the A-share market generally experienced downward pressure and adjustments, but the autonomous driving sector bucked the trend and saw an independent rally.

It is reported that over 70 A-share listed companies are involved in the autonomous driving industry chain. On the morning of February 13th, these stocks rose by an average of 1.03%. Among them, Xingmin Zhitong, Qianli Technology, and Zhejiang Shibao hit their daily limit, while Yongxin Optics, Wanji Technology, Baolong Technology, and Haoen Automotive Electronics rose by more than 4%.

Xingmin Zhilian stated on the investor Q&A platform that the company and BAIC Group are collaborating in the field of autonomous driving, focusing on technology breakthroughs, platform synergy, and scenario innovation: jointly developing 5G and vehicle-mounted satellite communication technology, tackling multi-domain fusion controller platforms, deepening the application of Beidou high-precision positioning technology, and comprehensively supporting the implementation of autonomous driving functions.

This surge in popularity is no accident. As policy "setting the tone" resonates with the "realization" of fundamentals, the autonomous driving sector is transitioning from theme-based speculation to a new voyage of performance validation.

L3/L4 mass production access breakthrough.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) recently issued an announcement stating that the Equipment Industry First Division of MIIT has organized the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee to carry out the formulation and revision of five mandatory national standards, including "Safety Requirements for Automated Driving Systems of Intelligent Connected Vehicles," and has formed draft versions for soliciting opinions, which are now open to the public for comments.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated that China has a good industrial development foundation, continuously maturing technology, reasonable cost-effectiveness expectations, and a solid research foundation and conditions for the standard project of safety requirements for autonomous driving systems in intelligent connected vehicles, indicating the high feasibility of the standard project.

The draft indicates that the document applies to M and N category vehicles equipped with Level 3 and/or Level 4 autonomous driving systems (excluding automated parking systems). The document specifies the technical requirements, assurance requirements, and type approval criteria for autonomous driving systems in intelligent connected vehicles, and describes corresponding assurance requirement inspections, safety archive inspections, and confirmatory test methods. The document is expected to open the door for mass-produced L3/L4 vehicles to enter the market and accelerate the standardization process of autonomous driving.

The pace of progress for this top-level design far exceeds market expectations.

In December 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle access permits in China. This January, Shanghai formulated the "Shanghai High-Level Autonomous Driving Leading Zone 'Model Speed Intelligent Mobility' Action Plan," aiming to achieve large-scale implementation of high-level autonomous driving application scenarios by 2027.

According to Southwest Securities' estimates, L3 penetration is expected to surge to 55% by 2028, and the domestic market size is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030, making it another trillion-level sector.

Profitability inflection point appears simultaneously.

If policy provides the "imagination" for valuation upside, then the 2025 earnings forecast injects solid "certainty" into the sector.

Among the 44 autonomous driving concept stocks that have disclosed their performance, many companies are reporting positive news such as increased net profit, a return to profitability, or reduced losses.

Among them, NavInfo expects to turn profitable in 2025 (January-December), with net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company ranging from 90.0925 million to 117 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.23% to 110.70%. The company forecasts operating revenue of 4.06 billion to 4.344 billion yuan and basic earnings per share of 0.0386 to 0.0501 yuan.

According to a NavInfo announcement, the significant increase in revenue was primarily due to the explosion in the automotive assisted driving market, the continuous refinement of security regulatory measures for assisted driving data, and the surging demand for data closed-loop capability building and data compliance.

Source: NavInfo

Additionally, the performance forecast of Guide Infrared shows that the estimated net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is RMB 700 million to RMB 900 million, turning losses into profits year-on-year, compared to a loss of RMB 447 million in the same period of the previous year. During the reporting period, the delivery of previously postponed model-type projects resumed, and the complete equipment system general foreign trade product contract signed with a certain trading company has been completed and accepted overseas. At the same time, the application demand for infrared chip business has been rapidly released, and the operating income has increased significantly. The growth of sales scale has brought about a synchronous increase in profits.

In terms of growth rate, commercial vehicle enterprises have emerged as the leaders of this round of profit surges. Foton Motor expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to reach approximately 1.33 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 1.25 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of about 1,551%. Its non-GAAP net profit is projected to reach 820 million yuan, an increase of 1.03 billion yuan year-on-year, successfully achieving a turnaround from losses to profitability.

Foton Motor stated that the main reasons for achieving profitability were: the company firmly promoted the implementation of its comprehensive internationalization, comprehensive new energy transformation, and comprehensive intelligentization strategies, seized the structural market opportunities brought about by policies such as "trade-in," increased the promotion of overseas localization, achieving total sales of 650,000 vehicles for the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.85%; new energy vehicle sales reached 101,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.21%; overseas market sales reached 164,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%; the contribution of new product sales continued to increase during the reporting period, and innovative marketing models and aftermarket business became new profit growth points for the company.

This also confirms the underlying logic shift in the automotive industry competition: electrification is the entry ticket, intelligence is the watershed, and globalization is the touchstone.

Component manufacturers also benefit from the prosperity of the industry chain. Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co., Ltd. released its 2025 annual performance forecast, estimating the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between RMB 468.45 million and RMB 574.91 million, an increase of 120% to 170% compared to the same period last year. This is due to the continued growth of the automotive industry in 2025, especially the high-speed growth of new energy vehicles. The company adheres to technological innovation as the lead, actively explores the market, and achieves a substantial increase in revenue. Secondly, the company continues to improve lean management measures, realize internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement, comprehensively enhance operating efficiency and market competitiveness, and promote the steady growth of the company's performance.

Standing in February 2026, the underlying tone of this autonomous driving trend is no longer a simple emotional game. As the vast market space and the inflection point of profitability for leading companies appear simultaneously, the autonomous driving sector is completing its transformation from a "concept sector" to a "growth track."

For investors, the real test may lie in how to distinguish between the lucky beneficiaries of the cycle and the survivors of the transformation during the window of opportunity for L3 penetration to leap.