[PET Weekly Review] Cost Support Collapses, Spot Prices Fall Sharply, Market Fluctuates Weakly

1. Production side: This week, the operating rate of the polyester bottle chip industry was 70.69%, down slightly from the previous week, indicating a modest contraction in overall production load.

2. Raw materials: The upstream PTA industry operating rate is 68.07%. Maintenance shutdowns at raw material facilities are concentrated, and there is a short-term expectation of phased support.

During the current period (June 12–June 18, 2026), China’s domestic PET bottle chip market saw a sharp decline, with collapsing costs dominating the market trend throughout the week. As of this Thursday, the weekly average spot price of water-bottle-grade PET bottle chips in the East China market stood at RMB 7,746/mt, down RMB 457/mt from the previous week, representing a weekly decline of 5.57%, highlighting the market’s pronounced weakness.

The cost side was the key drag on the market this week. As tensions in the Middle East continued to ease, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil rapidly faded, and market concerns over a tightening aromatics supply chain cooled completely. Prices of upstream feedstocks including crude oil, PX, and PTA fell across the board, significantly lowering the cost center of polyester bottle chip production, with spot prices retreating in tandem with costs. On the supply-demand side, expectations for further cargo arrivals strengthened. To ease shipment pressure and accelerate destocking, producers and traders generally cut prices and offered concessions, further amplifying the decline in spot prices.

Demand remains persistently weak, downstream end-user purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the industry continues to follow the traditional hand-to-mouth procurement pattern, with no concentrated restocking activity. On-site follow-up for rigid demand is sluggish, and the overall trading atmosphere is subdued, completely unable to offset the bearish pressure from the cost and supply sides, resulting in market prices continuing to trend lower.

During this period, total domestic PET bottle chip production was 330,300 tonnes, down 1.58% from the previous period; the industry capacity utilization rate was 70.69%, down 1.12 percentage points month-on-month. Industry operating rates edged lower, and supply contracted slightly, but the reduction was limited and insufficient to offset the bearish impact of the sharp decline in costs and weak demand, providing only minimal support to the market.

This week, the average production cost of polyester bottle chip polymerization was RMB 6,801.83/ton, down RMB 372.66/ton from the previous week, a decline of 5.19%. Raw material costs saw a significant easing. The industry’s average weekly profit was RMB 344.17/ton, down RMB 84.04/ton week on week, indicating a further narrowing of corporate profit margins. The pace of cost decline exceeded the pace of product price adjustments, and the industry’s profitability continued to weaken.

Comprehensively analyzing supply, demand, and costs, the short-term polyester bottle chip market lacks upward momentum and is likely to remain weak with a sideways-to-downward trend. The expected spot trading range for East China water bottle grade is...RMB 7,450-7,650/ton。

Supply sideIn the short term, there are no concentrated industry-wide maintenance shutdowns or restart changes. Output is expected to remain stable at 330,300 tons next week, with overall supply staying steady. Going forward, the key focus will be on the commissioning progress of new industry capacity, while long-term pressure from supply growth still remains.

Requirements levelThe current market has entered the traditional consumption peak season, but the end-user stocking mentality remains cautious, with a "just-in-time" purchasing model continuing. The downstream soft drink industry maintains a high operating rate of 80%-90%, and the operating rate of oil factories is expected to rise to around 70%, providing some support from demand. At the same time, the price gap between polyester bottle flakes and recycled PET continues to narrow, and the substitution demand in the sheet industry is expected to gradually increase. However, the replenishment efforts in the domestic market are limited, and foreign trade orders have declined month-on-month. Coupled with rising shipping costs and obstacles in export shipments, the overall demand boost is insufficient, leading to a slight accumulation of factory inventory.

Cost aspectRecently, PX and PTA units have entered a concentrated maintenance period, providing short-term, temporary support on the feedstock side and potentially easing the continued downward pressure on costs. However, with no clear recovery in demand and weak market confidence, feedstock support is unlikely to drive a rebound in spot prices and can only limit the downside.

1. Supply side: the commissioning progress of new facilities, the overall industry operating rate, and changes in inventory.

2. Demand side: changes in operating rates in downstream beverage and sheet industries, the intensity of rigid-demand restocking, and the status of export order intake;

3. Cost side: The impact of PX and PTA maintenance schedules and raw material price fluctuations on the transmission to bottle flakes.