Mom +36.73%: April Polyethylene Maintenance Losses Hit Record High

Domestic polyethylene plant maintenance intensified in April, leading to a historic contraction in supply and directly reshaping the market's supply-demand landscape, becoming the key driver of current market trends.

Loss volume hits a record high, surging month-on-month.

Data Source: JLC

According to the data from Golden Alliance,4The domestic polyethylene maintenance loss volume for the month is expected to reach66Ten thousand tons, compared to3 48.27Ten thousand tons) Month-over-month growth36.73%, setting a new record for the highest level in the same period historically.

The scale of the current maintenance round has expanded, primarily driven by two factors: first, routine scheduled maintenance, with multiple major units at companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Zhongan United undergoing simultaneous shutdowns for major overhauls; second, an increase in cost-driven shutdowns, as some oil-based petrochemical producers have proactively reduced operating rates or temporarily halted operations to mitigate risks amid high crude oil supply costs and elevated prices, further amplifying production losses. Overall,4Domestic polyethylene petrochemical maintenance losses in China increased significantly this month, coupled with4No new investments were made this month. Reduced Middle Eastern supply led to a decline in import arrivals, while the opening of export windows alleviated domestic pressure, leading to expectations of further supply tightening.

Supply and Demand Game: Supply Favorable Factors LeadVSRequirements are holding things back.

The reduction in supply due to maintenance is the core bullish factor, but4After the end of the month, the peak season for agricultural film has come to an end, with packaging film and pipe materials industries maintaining low production levels. The end users show strong resistance to high prices, mostly purchasing on a just-in-time basis with no centralized inventory building. Market transactions are difficult to increase, limiting the upward space for prices. In terms of imports, the arrival of polyethylene cargo from the Middle East has been limited recently, and the impact of import replenishment on the domestic market is relatively small.

By variety,LLDPEPolyethylene (linear low density) faces weak price upswing due to the decline in demand for agricultural films, with spot transactions generally characterized by price concessions.HDPEDownstream demand for HDPE (high-density polyethylene) in pipes and hollow products remains relatively stable, and combined with supply contraction, prices are expected to perform slightly stronger.LLDPE；LDPE(Low-density polyethylene) is expected to maintain high prices due to a significant supply reduction and relatively supportive downstream packaging demand.

Overall, the core conflict in the polyethylene market in April to May remains the showdown between "supply contraction" and "weak demand," with the key variable still being the fluctuation of crude oil prices under the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation. In the short term, the supporting power from the cost and supply sides will dominate the price trend, while the weakness in the demand side will limit the upward space. It is expected that the PE market will continue to remain in a high-level fluctuation during the period. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the restart progress of maintenance plants, the trend of crude oil prices, and the performance of downstream demand.