Geopolitical Influence Weakens, POE Market Enters a Downward Trend

Introduction: Translate the above content into English and output only the translation result directly, without any explanation.The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict has weakened compared to the previous period.POECost support and the supply-demand game continue, and short-term prices are under pressure and correcting downward. The concentrated release of new capacity in the later period will drive supply growth, and the market will face new challenges in the next stage.

Bears are in control, and prices have entered a downward channel.

Source: Jinlianchuang

The previous conflict between the US and Iran led to a sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, forcing pressure on costs.POEPrices have followed the upward trend, reaching their highest point in nearly two years. However, as downstream demand has recently decreased, transactions of high-priced goods have encountered resistance, causing prices to come under pressure and pull back after the surge. In addition, geopolitical factors have led to restrictions on some overseas production capacity.POEThe import landscape has also shifted, with spot availability of some grades limited in the market and regional price differences emerging.

Raw material prices fall, and cost support weakens.

Source: OilChem

Recently, as the influence of geopolitical factors diminishes, upstream ethylene and1-The prices of butylene have both declined.POECost-side support weakened. Asian ethylene prices continued to retreat, with nearly half of the gains being erased. Cost support diverged from the spot market; purchasing was sluggish and transactions were scarce, causing prices to decline continuously.1-Butene prices also showed a downward trend, weighed down significantly by weak demand. Downstream buyers showed limited follow-through, while cost support weakened, leading to reductions in mainstream quotations.POETotal cost reduction.POEPrice support has weakened.

The market outlook remains under pressure, and the downward price trend is unlikely to change.

In the short term, the U.S.-Iran talks have sent signals of easing tensions, and the earlier risk premium sentiment is gradually fading.POEThe support from upstream raw materials has weakened. Additionally, it is currently the traditional off-season for the industry in China, leading to significant resistance from downstream to high-priced sources. The ongoing competition between cost and demand remains, with transactions mainly sustained by small orders driven by essential needs.6 POEMarket or continued price pullback.

In the long run, as the impact of geopolitical factors weakens,POEThe market will return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. As...2026New domestic production capacity from Beioyi, Lianhong Huisheng and others has been released in a concentrated manner, driving continued growth in total domestic output. However, with limited incremental demand in the market, the new capacity will impact the existing supply landscape and intensify the industry’s supply-demand competition.POEThe market will face significant challenges.