Fuel vehicle prices slashed yet still unsold! new energy vehicles trapped in price wars! how should the entire auto industry break the deadlock and survive?

The Land Rover Range Rover Evoque L, a 400,000-yuan-class model, can be had for under 200,000 yuan before taxes after end-market discounts; the Audi A6L, once the benchmark business sedan with an official guide price in the 450,000-yuan range, has seen the pre-tax price of some leftover inventory models drop to 260,000 yuan; and the Nissan Sylphy, still wearing its “legendary” tag, has seen the rock-bottom quote for the Classic version fall below 50,000 yuan after stacking multiple subsidies—these price trends have recently flooded major automotive forums, mixing truth with falsehood, but they are by no means groundless rumors.

Just yesterday (June 21), Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), posted an article interpreting the passenger car market for May 2026. He summed up the current market in four characters: "" ("the collapse of fuel-powered vehicles"). He pointed out that a major feature of the current market is "total volume under pressure, significant structural divergence": in May 2026, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 62.9%, a record high; retail sales of fuel-powered passenger cars were about 560,000 units, with their market share down to just 37.1%.

问题来了：燃油车，真的没有市场了吗？电车是不是已经提前锁定胜局了呢？

The more aggressively prices are cut, the faster traditional fuel vehicles will die out.“Price Trap”

The wave of price cuts for fuel vehicles in 2026 exceeded industry expectations in both scale and intensity. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in April 2026, the average price of newly discounted conventional fuel vehicles was 131,000 yuan, with an average discount of 23,000 yuan and a decrease rate of 17.2%. From January to April, the average discount per vehicle reached as high as 34,000 yuan, with an overall price reduction of 14.6%.

豪华品牌更是“带头跳水”——奔驰C级/GLC官方直降6.9万，GLC部分地区终端裸车跌至35万以内；宝马3系入门裸车跌至20万出头；沃尔沃S60最高优惠14.7万。BBA开启降价，进一步挤压平价车型的生存空间。叠加市场需求萎缩，日系、德系也纷纷加入降价行列：日产轩逸经典版低至5.02万起，丰田卡罗拉跌至7.4万，本田思域起步价降至9.79万，大众速腾直降3万。

但市场的回答，出乎所有人的意料——降了，但没人买。

In April 2026, retail sales of fuel-powered passenger cars were 530,000 units, down 37% year-on-year; in May they recovered slightly to 560,000 units, but the year-on-year decline still reached 39%. Even more striking: the sales reduction in the fuel vehicle segment accounted for 82% of the total decline in passenger cars, becoming the main "drag" on the monthly market.

What is even more worrisome is that from January to February 2026, due to the phasing out of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, sales of new energy vehicles were temporarily suppressed, and the market share of fuel vehicles rebounded to over 60%. Some dealers accordingly replenished their inventory—only to have the consecutive sharp declines in April and May completely crush this stock. The China Automobile Dealers Association has described this phenomenon as a "collapse of the price system."

II. Core Contradiction: It’s Not That There’s No Demand for Fuel—It’s a “Structural Clearing-Out”

大多数人看到的是表象——油车卖不动。但更深层的逻辑是：中国城市家用市场，已经基本完成了电动化替代；而剩余的燃油车市场，正在被新能源“精准清场”。崔东树明确指出，当前市场并非整体需求崩塌，而是“结构性失衡”的集中显现——“总量承压、结构性大分化”。

Three forces are simultaneously driving this substitution:

1、油价持续高位

The fluctuation of international oil prices continues to drive up the daily operating costs of fuel vehicles. Based on calculations for a household fuel vehicle that travels 40 kilometers per day, the annual fuel cost now exceeds 15,000 yuan, which is 5 to 6 times the annual electricity cost of an electric vehicle of the same class. Cui Dongshu specifically pointed out, "Changes in the external energy landscape are the most direct cause. Persistently high international oil prices continue to drive up the daily operating costs of domestic fuel vehicles."

2、新能源产品力全面超越

截至2026年5月底，全国乘用车市场年内上市新车中，新能源（纯电+插混+增程）占比90.7%，燃油仅上升10款。车企的研发资源早已转向；燃油车不是没人买，而是没有好产品可买。

3、超充网络快速覆盖

The cumulative total number of charging piles nationwide has reached 11.88 million units, up 49.4% year on year. The long-standing pain point of “difficulty finding a charger” is being systematically addressed, the barriers to using electric vehicles continue to fall, and new energy is accelerating its penetration into third- and fourth-tier cities as well as county-level markets.

NIO founder, chairman, and CEO Li Bin publicly stated at the 2026 China Auto Chongqing Forum: "Starting this year, we have entered an accelerated growth phase at the turning point for pure electric vehicles. In the entire new car market, the share of pure electric vehicles has increased to 42.2%. In May this year, pure electric vehicle sales surpassed those of traditional fuel vehicles. This growth momentum will further accelerate, and this trend is irreversible and will only speed up."

但这里也有一个容易被忽视的事实：电车也并非高枕无忧。蔚来、理想、小鹏等造车新势力在2026年一季度均出现不同程度亏损；恶性价格战反复厮杀、愈演愈烈，以至于工信部和市场监管总局不得不联合约谈两家涉嫌非理性竞争的车企；重庆论坛上，阿维塔董事长王辉直言“卷价格是死路一条”，零跑COO徐军表示“低价内卷不可持续”。

3. The Future of Fuel Vehicles: Moving Upward, Specializing, and Going Overseas

Fuel vehicles will not completely disappear, but their role is undergoing a fundamental transformation—from being “mainstream mass commuting tools” to a dual-track position of “high-end boutique + specialized tool.” This is Cui Dongshu’s assessment, and also a market consensus in the global automotive industry.

1. Moving Upward—Luxury, Performance, Sentiment

Mercedes-Benz, Bentley, Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, and Aston Martin have all postponed their plans to phase out fuel-powered vehicles, slowing down the pace toward full electrification. The reason is simple: the sound of high-performance internal combustion engines, their mechanical feel, and the sense of driving engagement are things that electric motors and batteries cannot replicate in the short term. Cui Dongshu explicitly stated, “Luxury performance cars and hardcore off-road vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan will retain their appeal through mechanical sensation and emotional attachment.” The consumer demand in this segment has a stable emotional logic and irreplaceability.

2. Move towards specialization — commercial use, tools, and extreme scenarios

Extreme cold plateaus, long-distance crossings, and high-intensity freight transport—fuel vehicles remain irreplaceable due to their fast refueling (5 minutes for a full tank, 500 km range), stable low-temperature performance, and strong adaptability to various working conditions. Pickup trucks, light trucks, and commercial versions of some rugged off-road SUVs will become important strongholds for the long-term survival of fuel vehicles. Cui Dongshu pointed out that “commuting vehicles, pickups, and utility vehicles under 150,000 yuan” will be the core sectors for specialized development.

3、向出海走，新兴市场还有广阔空间

2026年一季度，中国新能源汽车出口占汽车出口总量比重突破40%，但这并不意味着燃油出海已死。非洲、中东、东南亚、拉美等充电基础设施薄弱的市场，对燃油车的旺盛需求将延续相当长时间。部分自主品牌已在探索“油车打海外增量+电车守国内大盘”的双线策略，这或许是燃油车求得喘息空间的最后一张底牌。

燃油车的最终出路，不在于与电车正面对抗，而在于找到那些“电车无法或无意覆盖”的场景，并在那里深耕。

四、电车的出路：告别内卷，走向价值竞争

新能源渗透率突破62%，是里程碑，也是转折点。增量市场正在收窄，竞争从“跑马圈地”转向“存量厮杀”，价格战打到失去理性，对整个新能源产业都是伤害。下一阶段，电车的核心竞争力，将从“便宜”转向“智能、品质与全球化”三个方向。

Intelligentization is the new main battlefield. According to Gasgoo Auto Research Institute, the current competition in the automotive industry has shifted from electrification to the second half of intelligentization. The popularization rate of L2++ assisted driving, cockpit interaction experience, and OTA iteration capability have become the core differentiators. Whoever achieves large-scale commercial deployment of intelligent driving first will gain pricing power in the second half.

出海是第二增长曲线。中研普华数据显示，2026年一季度新能源出口同比增速超100%，欧洲市场在关税壁垒倒逼下，中国车企加快匈牙利、西班牙等地建厂；东盟市场本地化生产比例上升，KD组装与全散件出口并行推进。中国新能源全球市场份额稳定在60%左右，这是产业链实力的体现。

Going down-market is the third battleground. As charging-station coverage accelerates, third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level markets are becoming the last area of incremental growth for new energy vehicles. "Affordable electric cars," represented by models priced under 100,000 yuan, will carry out the final push to complete electrification penetration in this market.

The joint interview by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, as well as the appeals made at the Chongqing Forum, have sent the same signal: in the next stage, the new energy industry must shift from "scale-driven" to "value-driven" development. Otherwise, excessive internal competition will only create bubbles, rather than genuine industrial competitiveness.

Conclusion: Say goodbye to the "oil-versus-electricity" confrontation and enter a "dual-track coexistence."

The automotive industry is a marathon with no finish line—there are no quick wins, and there won’t be a “collapse.” China’s auto market in 2026 is moving toward a clearer endgame: a dual-track structure in which mainstream electrification and niche premium internal-combustion models run in parallel, each holding its own ground.

This is not a victory for either side, but an inevitable outcome of the market's maturation. For consumers, healthy competition between the two systems will only make products better, increase choices, and make prices more reasonable.

Have fuel-powered cars really lost the market? The answer is: in the mass market, they have basically lost; but in certain niche markets, they will never disappear. The more important question is not whether fuel-powered cars have a future, but whether their manufacturers still have the courage, capability, and resources to perfect their products in those remaining strongholds.

参考来源：China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) April/May 2026 Passenger Car Market Analysis Report Official statement by Cui Dongshu on June 21 China Automobile Dealers Association industry assessment China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) Q1 automobile export data Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute Intelligentization Report Zhongyan Puhua New Energy Overseas Expansion Report Proceedings of the 2026 China Automotive Chongqing Forum Announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) & State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) joint talks with automakers IEA global electric vehicle market share data Sina Finance, etc.