Daily Review: PVC Futures and Spot Prices Weaken and Fluctuate, Terminal Demand Remains Cautious

I. Market Overview

On Wednesday, June 3, 2026, Baichuan Yingfu tracked the average market price of calcium carbide-based PVC at RMB 4,629/ton, up RMB 15/ton from the previous working day, an increase of 0.33%; the average market price of ethylene-based PVC was RMB 5,275/ton, down RMB 33/ton from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.62%.

Today, the V2609 main PVC futures contract fluctuated lower, with losses narrowing slightly toward the close. However, bearish sentiment among market participants remained strong. China’s domestic calcium carbide-based PVC spot market operated weakly, with mainstream market price centers showing mixed movements. Prices in the East China and South China markets edged down within a narrow range, with SG-5 tax-inclusive ex-warehouse prices concentrated at RMB 4,700–4,850/mt. The Northwest market saw a slight catch-up increase. Today, some weekly pricing producers in Inner Mongolia raised their offers slightly, while some other enterprises flexibly lowered quotations. Actual transactions were mainly subject to negotiation. Overall operating rates fluctuated only slightly, and output supply remained ample. Industry inventories still appeared excessive. Downstream demand for raw materials was weak, with buyers prioritizing the clearance of finished goods inventories. Actual trading volume showed no significant change, and enterprises continued to face resistance in shipments.

Today, the ethylene-based PVC market showed a weak trend. Final transactions were mainly concluded through negotiation, with mainstream spot prices edging down slightly. Traders followed the market and offered goods based on pricing points. However, downstream operating rates remained low, export order intake feedback was poor, and overall support from the demand side was weak. At present, cost pressure on ethylene-based PVC persists, with producers still operating at a loss. There were no significant adjustments to plant operating rates, and today’s operating rate stayed at 47.44%. Supply availability remained ample, and some producers offered price concessions to stimulate sales, while the imbalance between supply and demand in the market continued.

Domestic PVC Price Table (CNY/ton)

2. Market Outlook Prediction

On the production side, as of now, there has been little change in the operating conditions of upstream facilities. Overall PVC operating rates remain stable, and industry supply stays at a high level.

Raw materials: Calcium carbide market prices continued to decline, easing cost pressure on calcium carbide-based PVC, but support remained weak. Ethylene prices mainly consolidated at weak levels, slightly weakening cost-side support for ethylene-based PVC.

Comprehensive forecast: The fundamentals of the PVC market are weak as usual. Without significant macroeconomic variables influencing the market, it is difficult to see a noticeable upward trend in PVC prices. Even if capital manipulation pushes prices up, it is unlikely to find support. Therefore, it is expected that the overall PVC market will experience fluctuations and decline tomorrow, with an anticipated drop of 10-30 yuan/ton.