美国最高法院关税裁决继续“爽约”，国际油价收涨，塑料期货震荡运行

I. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

January 20: International oil prices rose as some oil fields in Kazakhstan temporarily ceased production due to power grid disruptions, compounded by lingering geopolitical instability. NYMEX crude oil futures for February delivery rose by $0.90/barrel to $60.34, a 1.51% increase. ICE Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose by $0.98/barrel to $64.92, a 1.53% increase. China's INE crude oil futures for contract 2603 fell by 4.1 to 438.5 yuan/barrel, then rose by 4.0 to 442.5 yuan/barrel in night trading.

后市观点

The 3% intraday fluctuation in oil prices indicates that the market is not lacking factors influencing oil price movements, but the sideways consolidation suggests that conflicting bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, insufficient to drive a sustained single-direction trend. Recently, the European diesel market has shown strength, and falling temperatures have bolstered both European and American natural gas markets, with US natural gas surging by nearly 30% in a single day. Cold weather has also stimulated demand for diesel heating, boosting market sentiment. On Wednesday night, oil prices also rallied briefly, but ultimately retreated from their intraday gains after settlement. However, the market's focus remains on geopolitical developments and progress in addressing the supply surplus, which has caused oil prices to oscillate recently. Overall, oil prices are in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with resistance above and support below.

委内瑞拉国民议会议长豪尔赫·罗德里格斯表示国民议会将“立即”讨论石油改革，委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯称委内瑞拉已收到美国石油交易5亿美元款项中的3亿美元，而美方在加勒比海扣押了 “Sagitta号” 油轮。油市暂时将继续维持拉锯，而一些高频指标给出的信号也是较为混乱，后市行情仍有明显的不确定性，容易出现突发高波动行情，当前阶段首先注意做好风险控制工作，其次才是对机会的把控。

II. Macro Market Dynamics

1、特朗普重返白宫一周年记者会Some content: Listing 365 achievements, comparing himself to Warren Buffett through his wife's words, "taking back" the Panama Canal is under consideration, will not attend the G7 meeting in Paris, considering allowing Machado to participate in Venezuelan affairs "in some way", the US will not have a trade deficit next year, the UN should continue to exist but a "peace committee" might replace it.

2、欧洲议会冻结美欧贸易协议批准程序。

3、美最高法院未就特朗普全球关税合法性挑战作出裁决，下个裁决窗口在一个月后。

4、Greenland Issue—① Canadian military simulates U.S. "military invasion" scenarios. ② Trump threatens to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne. ③ The U.S. plans to cut about 200 positions related to NATO institutions. ④ Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension announces it will divest its U.S. Treasury bonds. ⑤ Trump photoshops Greenland, Canada, and Venezuela into the U.S. map.

5、NDRC: We will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand for the period 2026-2030.

6、财政部等五部门：实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策。

III. Plastics Market Dynamics

International crude oil prices rose, and the main plastic futures contract fluctuated overnight.

塑料2605报6660元/吨，较前一交易日涨0.32%；

PP2605报6481元/吨，较前一交易日涨0.36%；

PVC2605报4754元/吨，较前一交易日跌1.1%；

Styrene reported at 7337 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% compared to the previous trading day.

四、今日行情预测

PP：PP基本面来看，供应端部分检修装置检修，停车影响量上涨，供应支撑增强，需求端下游行业订单跟进不足，工厂原料采购维持刚需，备货意愿偏低，贸易商报盘重心下移，预计今日聚丙烯市场区间整理，主流拉丝价格在6300-6500元/吨。

PE: In the short term, with the commissioning of new facilities and the gradual restart of maintenance units, market supply pressure will increase. On the demand side, as the end of the year approaches, demand is showing a weakening trend, and factories' willingness to restock is decreasing. Therefore, overall, prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term, with a magnitude of around 100 yuan/ton.

PVC: The fundamentals of the PVC spot market have been hard to find positive news recently. Market supply remains high and sufficient. Domestic demand is gradually weakening with the approaching holiday, and stocking demand is poor. Price competition in foreign trade has reappeared, and industry inventories continue to accumulate. Cost support is divergent. The calcium carbide method has short-term bottom support, but the industry's macro and policy expectations are weak. Various rumors in the market disturb the market atmosphere. In the short term, the PVC spot market is expected to stabilize. It is expected that the spot price of type 5 PVC produced by calcium carbide method in East China will fluctuate in the range of 4500-4600 yuan/ton (ex-warehouse, cash settlement).