Trump Imposes Tariff on China, China's PVC Exports Unaffected, End-Product Exports Restricted

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump decided to...11 1Impose additional tariffs on Chinese products starting from the above date.100%Tariff, and to“All key software”Implement export controls. This policy adjustment will have various impacts on the export pattern and market price of China's PVC industry. The specific analysis is as follows.

I. Regarding ChinaPVCThe direct impact of exports is limited, but the indirect transmission effects are significant.

Data source: Jinlianchuan, Customs Statistics Bureau

2024Based on annual data, China's top five export countries are India, Vietnam, Thailand, Nigeria, and Uzbekistan.PVCThe direct export volume of powder to the United States is very low.2024 0.007310,000 tons.2024China this year.PVCTotal export volume in261.1810,000 tons, while exports to the United States are only0.0073ten thousand tons, accounting for our country's total export volume of0.028%Regarding our countryPVCThe direct impact of powder exports is limited. However, from an indirect perspective, China's exports of end products such as PVC flooring, gloves, waterproof materials, and toys to the U.S. account for a relatively high proportion.PVCFloor coverings as an example,2024Export to the US in the year147.38Metric tons, accounting for the overall exports of31.12%After the increase in tariffs, it is expected that export costs will rise significantly, and a large number of orders may be lost in the short term. The reduction in downstream product orders will drag down...PVCPrice, in the short term,PVCThe market is unfavorable.

Section Two: Regarding ChinaPVCShort-term pressure on market prices and medium- to long-term differentiation risks.

In the short term, if the policy of imposing additional tariffs is officially implemented, the obstruction of PVC downstream product exports will directly affect market expectations for PVC demand. The uncertainty in the transmission of terminal demand, coupled with concerns about future demand, will exert downward pressure on PVC market prices in the short term, and market trading sentiment may cool accordingly. In the medium to long term, if PVC manufacturers can actively expand into non-US overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and simultaneously upgrade technology and optimize product structures to absorb potential domestic overcapacity, and if domestic demand in infrastructure, real estate, and other fields improves, then the price pressure caused by export concerns in the earlier period will gradually ease, and market prices are expected to return to a stable range dominated by supply and demand fundamentals. Conversely, if the scale of newly developed overseas markets is insufficient to compensate for the loss of the US market share, and domestic demand growth falls short of expectations, it will exacerbate the imbalance between domestic and international PVC supply and demand. The market may fall into a cycle of "demand contraction-price decline-capacity clearance," and PVC prices may face long-term downward risk.