Tariffs on non-strategic goods may be reduced! trump team claims backup plan for tariffs is in place, ready for refunds

On January 9, the U.S. Supreme Court did not announce the verdict on the Trump tariff case, which has attracted global attention.The whole world is waiting for this decision, which could have a profound impact on global trade policy and the financial situation of the United States.

It is currently unclear when the tariff ruling will be announced. The next opinion day of the U.S. Supreme Court is set for January 14th (next Wednesday), and the market suspense continues.

The final judgment will involve two core issues:

Firstly, whether the tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are legal.

Second, does the United States have to refund the tariffs that have already been paid?

If the court overturns the tariffs, the maximum tariffs imposed by the United States on China can be reduced by 20% (10% fentanyl tariff + 10% reciprocal tariff), and the tariffs already paid can also be refunded upon application.

On the evening of January 8, all the key leaders of the core economic and trade team of the Trump administration held a major meeting.

The attendees of the meeting included Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council; Scott Basent, Secretary of the Treasury; Jameson Greer, U.S. Trade Representative; and other senior officials from the Treasury Department, Department of Commerce, and the White House trade policy team.

Meeting Purpose: Discuss the next course of action if the Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal. Focus on swiftly restoring similar tariff levels to avoid a policy vacuum.

Core content and discussion points of the meeting:

⚠️ Tariff Contingency Plan:

Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council at the White House, stated that the Trump team has formulatedA very, very detailed backup planEven haveBackup plan for the backup planHassett emphasized: If the lawsuit is lost, other legal tools can be used almost immediately to reimpose tariffs, achieving the "same effect."

It is worth noting that,Comprehensive tariffs will be difficult to implement again.Comprehensive tariffs include those imposed universally on countries worldwide.Reciprocal Tariff", as well as additional tariffs specifically targeting China, Canada, and Mexico.""Fentanyl Tariff"。

Industry tariffs will become mainstream.(Industry tariffs imposed under Sections 301/232, such as steel, aluminum, and auto parts tariffs).Strategic industries and specific sectors will maintain high tariff levels through alternative legal instruments, while goods from non-strategic industries will be subject to relatively "lower" tariff rates.。

⚠️ Potential Alternative Legal Tools:

The information has not been fully disclosed, but Hassett has repeatedly mentioned the following plan:

●Section 301Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: Targets unfair trade practices, which is the most frequently mentioned option, but the procedure is more time-consuming than IEEPA (requires investigation and public comment period).

●Section 232Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Imposing tariffs solely for reasons of national security (as previously on steel and aluminum).

●Section 122(Trade Law Article 122): Short-term Trade Balance Measures.

Compared to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), clauses like 301/232 have several limitations. These clauses are highly targeted but have limited scope, involve complex and time-consuming procedures, and are easily challenged by other countries through the WTO dispute resolution mechanism.

⚠️ Tariff Refund:

Trump has imposed tariffs of approximately $150-200 billion based on the IEEPA. If deemed illegal, it could lead to large-scale tax refunds. Companies are advised to immediately assess their exposure to exports to the US and prepare refund applications.

The U.S. Customs has established an electronic refund system, preparing for large-scale tax refunds. Importers must register for an electronic refund account by February 6, 2026, in order to receive electronic refunds through the Customs Automated Clearinghouse (ACH) network; otherwise, the refund may be delayed or affected.

Finance Minister Besent stated that if the Supreme Court rules unfavorably,The Ministry of Finance has sufficient funds to pay refunds, which will be issued on a weekly/yearly basis.He stressed that the tax refund would be a "corporate boondoggle." However, he was more concerned about losing negotiating leverage rather than revenue loss.