Tariffs on Non-Strategic Goods May Be Reduced! Trump Team States Tariff Backup Plan Has Been Formulated; Plastics Show Positive Movement Today

On January 9, the U.S. Supreme Court did not announce the decision on the Trump tariff case, which has attracted global attention.The world is waiting for this decision, which could have far-reaching impacts on global trade policy and the financial situation in the United States.

It is currently unclear when the tariff ruling will be announced. The next opinion day of the U.S. Supreme Court is set for January 14 (next Wednesday), and the market suspense continues.

The final ruling will involve two core issues:

Firstly, whether the tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are legal.

Secondly, whether the United States must refund the tariffs that have already been paid.

If the court overturns the tariffs, the United States could reduce tariffs on China by up to 20% (10% fentanyl tariff + 10% reciprocal tariff), and paid tariffs can also be refunded.

On the evening of January 8, all the main leaders of the core economic and trade team of the Trump administration held a major meeting.

The attendees of the meeting included Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council; Scott Besant, Secretary of the Treasury; Jamieson Greer, U.S. Trade Representative; as well as other senior officials from the Treasury Department, Commerce Department, and the White House trade policy team.

Meeting Purpose: To discuss the action plan if the Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal. The focus is on quickly restoring similar tariff levels to avoid a policy vacuum.

Core content and discussion points of the meeting:

⚠️ Tariff Contingency Plan:

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that the Trump team has developed."very, very detailed backup plan"and evenBackup plan for the backup planHassett emphasized: If the lawsuit is lost, other legal tools can be used almost immediately to reimpose tariffs and achieve the "same effect."

It is worth noting thatComprehensive tariffs will be difficult to implement again.Comprehensive tariffs include those imposed universally on all countries.Reciprocal tariffs...and additional tariffs specifically targeting China, Canada, and Mexico."Fentanyl Tariff"。

Industry tariffs will become mainstream.(Industry tariffs imposed under Section 301/232, such as tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automotive parts).Strategic industries and specific sectors will maintain high tariff levels according to alternative legal instruments, while goods from non-strategic industries will be subject to relatively "lower" tariff rates.。

⚠️ Potential Alternative Legal Tools:

Not fully disclosed, but Hassett has mentioned the following plan multiple times:

●Section 301(Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974): This is the most frequently mentioned option for addressing unfair trade practices, but the process is more time-consuming than the IEEPA (requires investigation and public comment period).

●Section 232(Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962): Tariffs imposed solely on the grounds of national security (such as previously on steel and aluminum).

●Section 122(Trade Law Article 122): Short-term trade balance measures.

However, the provisions of 301/232 have several limitations compared to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). These provisions are highly targeted but have a limited scope, involve complex and time-consuming procedures, and are prone to being challenged by other countries through the WTO dispute resolution mechanism.

⚠️ Tariff Refund:

Trump has imposed approximately $150-200 billion in tariffs under the IEEPA, and if deemed illegal, it could trigger large-scale refunds. It is recommended that businesses immediately assess their exposure to exports to the U.S. and prepare refund applications.

The U.S. Customs has established an electronic refund system in preparation for large-scale tax refunds. Importers must register for an electronic refund account by February 6, 2026, in order to receive electronic refunds through the Customs' Automated Clearing House (ACH) network; otherwise, there may be delays or impacts on the refunds.

Finance Minister Besent said that if the Supreme Court rules unfavorably,The Ministry of Finance has sufficient funds to pay the tax refunds, which will be distributed weekly/annually.He emphasized that the tax rebate would be a "corporate boondoggle." However, he is more concerned about losing negotiation leverage than about revenue loss.