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Supply and Demand Rise as the Main Theme: How Will September Polypropylene (PP) Spot Prices Evolve?

Longzhong 2025-09-03 13:58:36

Introduction: On September 1st, the first-line 450,000 tons/year PP unit of Ningbo Daxie Phase II was successfully put into operation, increasing the annual polypropylene production capacity to 48.765 million tons. With the capacity base lifted and the restart of units after turnaround, polypropylene supply is expected to increase significantly in September; will demand recovery keep pace with the changes in supply in September?Polypropylene PriceHow will it evolve?

I: With the increase in production capacity base and the reduction of overhaul units, the polypropylene output in September is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year.

Table 1: Scheduled Maintenance Statistics for Polypropylene in China, September 2025

Province	Company Name	Capacity	Maintenance Start Date	Maintenance Completion Date	Duration	Daily loss amount	Total loss amount	Remarks
Liaoning	Dalian Petrochemical	5	2006/8/2	To be determined	30	150	4500	Regular maintenance
Hubei	Wuhan Petrochemical	12	2021/11/12	To be determined	30	360	10800	Regular maintenance
Heilongjiang	Haiguo Longyou	20	2022/2/8	To be determined	30	600	18000	Regular maintenance
Heilongjiang	Haiguo Longyou	35	2022/4/3	To be determined	30	1050	31500	Regular maintenance
Tianjin	Tianjin Petrochemical	6	2022/8/1	To be determined	30	180	5400	Routine maintenance
Liaoning	Jinxi Petrochemical	15	2023/2/16	To be determined	30	450	13500	Routine Maintenance
Qinghai	Qinghai Salt Lake	16	2023/10/27	Pending	30	480	14400	Troubleshooting
Jiangsu	Changzhou Fude	30	2023/11/1	To be determined	30	900	27000	Routine Maintenance
Shandong	Wanhua Chemical	30	2024/5/11	To be determined	30	900	27000	Regular maintenance
Shandong	Hongrun Petrochemical	45	2024/8/8	To be determined	30	1350	40500	Cost Maintenance
Zhejiang	Shaoxing Three Circles	30	2024/8/23	To be determined	30	900	27000	Regular maintenance
Liaoning	Dalian Petrochemical	7	2024/11/1	To be determined	30	210	6300	Routine Maintenance
Shandong	Qilu Petrochemical	7	2025/1/6	Pending	30	210	6300	Routine Maintenance
Henan	Luoyang Petrochemical	8	2025/2/6	To be determined	30	240	7200	Cost Maintenance
Guangxi	SinoChem Quanzhou	20	2025/4/22	To be determined	30	600	18000	Regular maintenance
Liaoning	Northern Huajin	6	2025/4/26	To be determined	30	180	5400	Routine Maintenance
Beijing	Yanshan Petrochemical	7	2025/5/12	To be determined	30	210	6300	Cost maintenance
Beijing	Yanshan Petrochemical	25	2025/5/24	2025/10/10	30	750	22500	Regular maintenance
Liaoning	Dalian Petrochemical	20	2025/7/4	Pending	30	600	18000	Routine maintenance
Shandong	Yulong Petrochemical	40	2025/7/9	To be determined	30	1200	36000	Routine Maintenance
Shandong	Dongming Petrochemical	20	2025/7/29	2025/9/12	12	600	7200	Routine maintenance
Liaoning	Fushun Petrochemical	9	2025/8/1	2025/9/30	30	270	8100	Regular maintenance
Xinjiang	National Energy Xinjiang	45	2025/8/8	2025/9/12	12	1350	16200	Routine Maintenance
Liaoning	Fushun Petrochemical	30	2025/8/15	2025/10/15	30	900	27000	Routine Maintenance
Shandong	Jinneng Chemical	45	2025/8/20	2025/9/20	20	1350	27000	Routine Maintenance
Hebei	Hebei Haiwei	30	2025/8/27	Pending	15	900	13500	Fault Troubleshooting
Gansu	Lanzhou Petrochemical	4	2025/8/28	To be determined	10	120	1200	Troubleshooting
Anhui	Anqing Baiju	30	2025/8/29	2025/9/5	5	900	4500	Troubleshooting
Ningxia	Ningxia Baofeng	50	2025 Early September of the year	20 Sky	20	1500	30000	Routine Maintenance
Guangdong	CNOOC Daxie Phase I	30	2025/9/4	To be determined	To be determined	900	18000	Regular maintenance
Heilongjiang	Daqing Refining & Chemical	30	2025/9/5	2025/9/22	4	900	3600	Routine Maintenance
Shandong	Qingdao Refining	20	2025/9/8	2025/9/15	7	600	4200	Routine maintenance
Zhejiang	Shaoxing Three Circles	20	2025/9/15	To be determined	15	600	9000	Cost Maintenance
Note: The end date for maintenance/reduction of some equipment is currently estimated and is for reference only.

Data source:Longzhong Information

According to the future maintenance plan, only six additional polypropylene units are scheduled for maintenance in September, most of which are planned short-term stoppages, with major overhauls only at Ningxia Baofeng and Shaoxing Sanyuan. In terms of maintenance loss, the maintenance loss of polypropylene in August was 658,890 tons, involving a total maintenance capacity of 12.29 million tons. The planned maintenance loss in September is expected to be 512,100 tons, with an anticipated reduction of 22% in planned maintenance loss.

Figure 1: Seasonal Variation Trend of Monthly Polypropylene Production from 2023 to 2025 (10,000 tons)

Figure 2 Forecast of China's Polypropylene Production and Capacity Utilization Rate (10,000 tons, %)

[隆众聚焦]：供需齐升成主线 9月聚丙烯现货价格走势如何推演？

Data Source: Longzhong Information

From the changes in production volume and capacity utilization rate, it is expected that polypropylene production in September will increase by 0.52% month-on-month and 19.80% year-on-year to 3.523 million tons. The increase in production in September mainly comes from the completion and restart of major maintenance units such as Zhongmei, Jingbo Polyolefin, and Quanzhou Guoheng. With few planned maintenance shutdowns and a rising capacity base, polypropylene production has seen a substantial increase.

2. Slow recovery in demand, low raw material inventories provide the market with a certain capacity to absorb goods.

Table 2: Tracking the Operating Conditions of Major Downstream Industries of Polypropylene in China

Classification	Industry Overview	Comprehensive Assessment
Plastic weaving	This week's operating rate of plastic weaving sample enterprises is 42.3%, an increase of 0.3% compared to last week. - Industry operating rates have increased, and enterprise orders have slightly improved. - Supply pressure is increasing, raw material raffia prices are weak and declining, and procurement enthusiasm from woven bag enterprises remains acceptable.	☆☆☆
BOPP	- The PP spot and futures prices are consolidating within a range, with petrochemical ex-factory prices remaining stable to slightly lower. Cost support is weakening, and film manufacturers mostly continue to maintain stable ex-factory prices. The cost support has weakened, BOPP mainstream prices have stabilized for sales, and raw material prices have slightly adjusted. Although the price difference between the two remains relatively stable, it has slightly declined compared to the increase. The cost of raw materials is trending downward, and membrane prices remain stable. Downstream overall inquiry intentions are not high, with a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Membrane manufacturers' orders have decreased month-on-month.	☆☆
CPP	This week, the operating rate of CPP sample enterprises was 59.13%, an increase of 0.38% compared to the previous week. As of August 28th, the mainstream price of ordinary composite film in East China was 9,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The previous economic environment was unfavorable, leading to a decline in consumer purchasing power for food and daily necessities. The overall demand recovery is moderate, and the number of order days has decreased year-on-year.	☆☆
PP Non-woven fabric	The industry demand has slightly increased, and the operating rate of the PP non-woven fabric industry has risen by 0.75%. Demand in the packaging and agricultural industries remains stable, with medical and healthcare fabric orders providing slight support, and industry orders increasing month-on-month. - As businesses resume operations, raw material consumption rises, and raw material inventory slightly declines.	☆☆☆
PP Pipe material	The average operating rate of the PP pipe industry during the week was 36.37%, an increase of 0.24% compared to the previous week. Construction starts are increasing, with peak and off-peak delivery weeks; companies are stocking up in advance, leading to a rebound in demand. New orders for PP pipes are rising.	☆
PP Injection Molding	The operating rate of daily-use injection molding PP is 57.44%, up 0.32% from last week. - Polypropylene MarketPrices continue to decline, daily-use injection-molded PP orders remain acceptable.	☆☆
PP transparent	This week, the operating rate of downstream transparent PP factories is 45.15%, a week-on-week increase of 0.25%. This week, the transparent PP market remained weak and consolidated. Supply-side pressure increased, but demand growth was slow. The fundamentals are relatively weak. The operating rates of downstream factories are gradually increasing, and the combination of low raw material inventories and low finished product inventories has led to a rise in market buying interest.	☆☆
Modified PP	This week, the operating rate of modified polypropylene increased by 0.25% week-on-week to 60.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.31%. - Recently, new orders have increased, and raw materials are being restocked as needed in appropriate quantities. Raw material inventory days have risen by 0.36% compared to the previous period. The third batch of national subsidies has been issued, providing slight support to terminal demand, and orders have increased modestly.	☆☆☆

Source of data: Longzhong Information

According to tracking by Longzhong Information, as of the end of August, except for the BOPP film and modification industries, the operating rates of other major downstream sectors have generally rebounded. Among them, new orders in the PP pipe and daily-use injection molding industries have gradually increased, providing certain support to the market.

Figure 3 Average Operating Rate Trend Chart of Downstream Industries of PP

Figure 4 Average Order Statistics of PP Downstream

[隆众聚焦]：库存及成本为市场提供底部支撑 9月聚丙烯现货重心或稳中上移

Source of data: Longzhong Information

From the average data of downstream industries, the industry's operating rate has not changed much. With the start of the peak season in September and October, the average operating rate of downstream polypropylene industries has slightly increased. The average orders in the downstream this year are higher than in previous years, mainly due to increased industry concentration, with orders concentrated in leading enterprises. Additionally, the presence of "rush export" orders in the first half of this year has resulted in average orders being higher than in previous years.

Figure 5 Statistics of Average Raw Material Inventory in PP Downstream

Figure 6: Average Finished Product Inventory Statistics of PP Downstream

[隆众聚焦]：库存及成本为市场提供底部支撑 9月聚丙烯现货重心或稳中上移

Data Source: Longzhong Information

From the perspective of inventory performance, both raw material inventory and finished product inventory have remained at low levels compared to the same period in previous years. Under the backdrop of high supply, downstream enterprises generally hold a pessimistic outlook on the market and are reluctant to hold goods, resulting in continuously declining inventory levels. According to a survey by Longzhong Information, the average raw material inventory of downstream enterprises this year is lower year-on-year. 8.44% Average finished goods inventory year-on-year low 7.58% 。

The inventory and cost aspects provide strong support for the bottom of polypropylene, and the future market is expected to stop falling and rise.

Figure 7 Comparative Analysis of Price Spread Trends between Polypropylene and Propylene (Yuan/Ton)

[隆众聚焦]：库存及成本为市场提供底部支撑 9月聚丙烯现货重心或稳中上移

Data source: Longzhong Information

Propylene is the most direct raw material source for polypropylene, and from a long-term perspective, the price difference between the two generally remains stable at 500-800 yuan/ton. However, recently, due to the shutdown of a PDH plant in Shandong, the external supply of propylene has decreased, leading to a significant rise in propylene prices, while polypropylene prices have fallen due to its own supply-demand imbalance. As of today (September 2, 2025), the price difference between the two has narrowed to 256 yuan/ton. Based on the full cost calculation of propylene-to-polypropylene, the loss per ton for externally sourced propylene to produce PP is 375 yuan/ton.

The price spread between propylene and polypropylene has narrowed, leading to a decline in production enthusiasm among enterprises that purchase propylene externally. Additionally, some units have stopped polypropylene production to sell propylene, thereby providing for polypropylene.

Figure 8: Weekly Average Price Forecast for Main Polypropylene Market in September (Yuan/Ton)

[隆众聚焦]：库存及成本为市场提供底部支撑 9月聚丙烯现货重心或稳中上移

Data source: Longzhong Information

From the perspective of price performance, the current mainstream spot price of polypropylene has fallen below 7,000 yuan/ton. Low prices have stimulated rapid buying from downstream, strengthening the spot basis. In the future, as demand gradually starts, factories are expected to increase orders based on actual needs due to low raw material inventory. On the cost side, with high costs of raw materials such as propylene, the price difference between powder and granules has narrowed, and polypropylene faces expectations of reduced supply and increased demand.

Overall, the current polypropylene market presents a "strong expectations + weak reality" pattern. The path of countering internal competition and overseas interest rate cuts has provided some confidence boost to the market. With prices declining, there are considerable rigid demand buy orders around 6900-6950 yuan/ton, consolidating the bottom space for polypropylene. However, the upside potential is limited, mainly because the loose fundamental pattern of polypropylene is difficult to change, and factories tend to buy on dips rather than on rallies, making it hard for spot prices to follow futures upward. It is expected that the polypropylene futures will trade in the range of 6900-7200 yuan/ton in September, with the monthly average spot price potentially rising slightly by 50-100 yuan/ton.

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Supply and Demand Rise as the Main Theme: How Will September Polypropylene (PP) Spot Prices Evolve?

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