[PVC Weekly Outlook] PVC Prices Expected to Maintain Weak Fluctuation

I. Points of Interest

1 On October 10, the situation between Israel and Palestine continues to ease, coupled with the ongoing U.S. tariff issues that may bring new risks, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract fell by $2.61 to $58.90 per barrel, a decrease of 4.24%; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract fell by $2.49 to $62.73 per barrel, a decrease of 3.82%. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract dropped by 2.5 to 466.2 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it fell by 21.2 to 445 yuan per barrel.

2 During the National Day period, the mainstream trading prices in the Wuhai and Ningxia regions for calcium carbide showed a significant decline. As of the 10th, the mainstream trading price in the Wuhai region was 2,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. Strengthened road transport has increased the shipment pressure on production enterprises, leading to active shipments. However, the orderly use of electricity in the Inner Mongolia region has resulted in low regional inventories, with the rate of decline gradually slowing down. Continuous rainy weather in the north has increased the pressure on arrivals, and downstream mainly relies on inventory consumption. However, with the gradual implementation of maintenance in downstream PVC and paste resin, downstream demand has weakened, providing limited support for calcium carbide prices. It is noteworthy that with the intensified impact of orderly electricity usage in the Inner Mongolia region, production enterprises are experiencing tight supply, and calcium carbide prices rebounded over the weekend. It is expected that calcium carbide prices will remain stable today.

3 PVC: Last week, the domestic PVC market saw narrow price adjustments, with a general atmosphere in transactions. The supply of PVC remains ample, while domestic and foreign demand is stable but weak. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, mainly seeking lower prices for transactions, and the supply-demand pressure for PVC remains unchanged. As of October 11, the cash quotes for carbide-based PVC in the East China region were 4,560-4,680 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC was priced at 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.

II. Price List

III. Market Outlook

This week, companies such as Jinyuyuan, Junzheng, and Tuokexun are undergoing maintenance, and market supply is expected to decrease slightly. Combined with the release of new production capacity, output remains high compared to the same period last year. Domestic demand is stable, and there are limited new export orders, with focus primarily on fulfilling existing orders. Industry inventory is expected to maintain a trend of gradual increase, and PVC prices are anticipated to remain weak and fluctuate.

4. Data Calendar