[PVC Morning Update] Expected PVC Market to Experience Mild Weak Fluctuations and Adjustments

I. Areas of Focus

1 On October 8, [Longzhong] the market remains concerned about the supply risks arising from the instability of the Russia-Ukraine situation, coupled with the continued sanctions by the United States against certain oil-producing countries, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for November rose by $0.82 to $62.55 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 1.33%; ICE Brent crude oil futures for December rose by $0.80 to $66.25 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 1.22%. China's INE crude oil futures were closed due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays.

2 During the National Day holiday, the mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in the domestic market in Wuhai region was lowered to 2450 yuan/ton. During the holiday, Inner Mongolia region continued to be affected by orderly electricity usage, leading to unstable supply, and some enterprises reduced their operation loads. The unstable supply alleviated the inventory pressure in Inner Mongolia, causing the market price decline to slow down. Downstream companies actively stocked up before the holiday to prepare for potential delivery disruptions during the National Day period. As the holiday concluded, the enthusiasm for loading by some logistics vehicles gradually began to improve, but the downward trend in calcium carbide prices may continue. Today, the mainstream trade price in Wuhai region was decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2400 yuan/ton.

3 Before the holiday, the domestic PVC market remained sluggish and stable, continuing to focus on low-price transactions. End-user purchasing enthusiasm was generally moderate, and the transaction atmosphere was subdued. Pre-holiday supply remained high, with inventory accumulation mainly due to the holiday impact, putting pressure on the spot market. As of September 30, the East China region's carbide-based PVC type-5 spot price was between 4,640-4,780 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC was between 4,800-5,100 yuan/ton.

Section 2: Price List

Market Outlook

During the holiday period, PVC production enterprises maintained stable production. Coupled with the release of new production capacity, the supply volume is expected to continue to increase. Additionally, some end-user enterprises are on holiday, leading to a reduction in PVC procurement demand. Industry inventory is expected to grow significantly after the holiday, with considerable pressure on market supply and demand. In foreign trade, the lack of imposition of anti-dumping measures by India offers some export benefits, which to some extent supports the new ethylene-based market. After the holiday, with companies like Junzheng and Jinyuyuan starting maintenance and industry policy expectations providing support, the PVC market is expected to undergo slight weak fluctuations and adjustments.

4. Data Calendar