PVC Morning Outlook: Spot Prices Expected to Fluctuate Above Cost Line Until Market Reverses

I. Focus Points

1 、 [Longzhong] March 10: The market believes the Israel-Iran conflict is expected to end faster than anticipated, and the G7 group may also consider releasing strategic reserves, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 04 fell by 11.32 USD/barrel to 83.45, down 11.94%; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 fell by 11.16 USD/barrel to 87.80, down 11.28%. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2604 fell by 14.2 to 732.4 RMB/barrel, and fell by 90.4 to 642 RMB/barrel in the night session.

2 calcium carbide Yesterday, the main domestic calcium carbide ex-factory prices rose significantly. In the Wuhai region, the mainstream trading price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are experiencing tight supply, with some companies having a backlog of shipments. As more maintenance units come online, supply has noticeably decreased. The load of downstream chlor-alkali enterprises has increased significantly, leading to a rise in demand. Additionally, the recent international situation has led to a marked increase in gasoline and natural gas prices, increasing logistics cost pressures and making it difficult to secure transportation. With a positive purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, today's downstream purchase prices have generally risen. In the Wuhai region, the mainstream trading price also increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton. 。

3 PVC: The domestic PVC market has seen a high-level retracement, with spot prices following suit. Influenced by the decline in international oil prices and a cooling of market sentiment, the main futures contract has significantly declined. Traders have lowered their market quotes, primarily focusing on selling at fixed prices. The downstream market is cautious, with demand mainly based on necessity. Currently, the cost support for PVC remains, but high inventory levels and weak demand limit the space for a rebound. The market has returned to a state of watchfulness. As of March 10, the price range for SG-5 in Changzhou has shifted to 5100-5250 RMB/ton (warehouse delivery).

II. Price List

III. Market Outlook

Short-term PVC supply and demand remain balanced. Due to growing expectations of tight ethylene supply, ethylene-based PVC producers may reduce operating rates in the near future, while calcium carbide-based producers have slightly increased their operating rates. Rising costs are supporting higher PVC price floors. In the short term, elevated and volatile energy prices continue to influence market sentiment. PVC spot prices are expected to fluctuate above cost levels until the situation reverses, with ongoing sensitivity to energy price fluctuations.

4. Data Calendar