[pvc daily review] supply and demand weakened, pvc fluctuates during trading
1. Today's Summary
Certain domestic PVC manufacturers have reduced their ex-factory prices by 10-20 yuan/ton.
This week, some units such as Junzheng, Tianye, Lutai, and Tosoh will undergo maintenance. 。
3. Two departments take action to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises and maintain price order in key areas.
2 Spot Overview
Based on the East China Changzhou market, the spot warehouse delivery price for acetylene method type 5 in East China is 4,640 yuan/ton today, unchanged from the previous trading day. 。
The domestic PVC spot market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with no improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals. Although post-holiday maintenance has increased, the overall supply scale remains high. Both domestic and international demand are weak and stable, and the industry is still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Bulk commodities are experiencing weak intraday fluctuations, and there are no positive industry stimuli in the near term. In the East China region, spot market prices are weakly adjusted, with the carbide process Type 5 cash delivery at 4,580-4,680 yuan/ton and the ethylene process at 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.
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Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trends (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
Figure 2 Domestic PVC Prices in Various Regions (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
3、 Spot-Futures Basis
Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)
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Region |
The previous trading day |
Today |
Rise and fall |
Month-on-month |
|
East China (Contract 01) |
-100 |
-100 |
0 |
0% |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
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The basis of the PVC 01 contract in the East China region is in the range of -40/-120, with slight fluctuations in the basis.
4、 Production Status
There are no new enterprise maintenance plans. 。
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Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart |
Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization and Price |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
5、Price prediction
After the holiday, although PVC production has started to increase despite a slight weakening, the overall production capacity remains high, ensuring sufficient market supply. Domestic demand is expected to remain stable, but foreign trade faces policy-related uncertainties. Industry inventory is expected to continue accumulating, putting pressure on the spot market price. In terms of policy, the short-term outlook is not favorable, combined with weak cost fluctuations. The PVC spot market transactions remain at a low level, with prices fluctuating within a range. The East China carbide method type 5 cash-exchange warehouse delivery price is in the range of 4600-4740 yuan/ton.
6、 Related Products
Calcium carbide ： The mainstream trade price of the domestic calcium carbide market in the Wuhai region is 2400 yuan/ton, with slight adjustments in some areas.
Ethylene ： Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia at $805/ton, CFR Southeast Asia at $800/ton, market prices remain stable. 。
7、Data Calendar
Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview
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Data |
Release Date |
Previous Data |
Trend Forecast |
|
PVC utilization rate |
Thursday 5:30 PM |
82.63% |
↗ |
|
PVC Weekly Production |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
50.36 |
↗ |
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PVC production enterprise factory inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
See data terminal |
↗ |
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PVC third-party social inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
+ |
↗ |
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PVC production enterprise export volume |
Friday 12:00 AM |
View data terminal |
↘ |
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PVC downstream products enterprise operating rate |
Friday 5:00 PM |
View data terminal |
↗ |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information Remark: 1. Consider ↓↑ as significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with an increase or decrease of more than 3%. 2. ↗↘ are considered narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall of within 0-3%. |
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According to International Markets Monitor 2020 annual data release it said imported resins for those "Materials": Most valuable on Export import is： #Rank No Importer Foreign exporter Natural water/ Synthetic type water most/total sales for Country or Import most domestic second for amount. Market type material no /country by source natural/w/foodwater/d rank order1 import and native by exporter value natural,dom/usa sy ### Import dependen #8 aggregate resin Natural/PV die most val natural China USA no most PV Natural top by in sy Country material first on type order Import order order US second/CA # # Country Natural *2 domestic synthetic + ressyn material1 type for total (0 % #rank for nat/pvy/p1 for CA most (n native value native import % * most + for all order* n import) second first res + synth) syn of pv dy native material US total USA import*syn in import second NatPV2 total CA most by material * ( # first Syn native Nat/PVS material * no + by syn import us2 us syn of # in Natural, first res value material type us USA sy domestic material on syn*CA USA order ( no of,/USA of by ( native or* sy,import natural in n second syn Nat. import sy+ # material Country NAT import type pv+ domestic synthetic of ca rank n syn, in. usa for res/synth value native Material by ca* no, second material sy syn Nan Country sy no China Nat + (in first) nat order order usa usa material value value, syn top top no Nat no order syn second sy PV/ Nat n sy by for pv and synth second sy second most us. of,US2 value usa, natural/food + synth top/nya most* domestic no Natural. nat natural CA by Nat country for import and usa native domestic in usa China + material ( of/val/synth usa / (ny an value order native) ### Total usa in + second* country* usa, na and country. CA CA order syn first and CA / country na syn na native of sy pv syn, by. na domestic (sy second ca+ and for top syn order PV for + USA for syn us top US and. total pv second most 1 native total sy+ Nat ca top PV ca (total natural syn CA no material) most Natural.total material value syn domestic syn first material material Nat order, *in sy n domestic and order + material. of, total* / total no sy+ second USA/ China native (pv ) syn of order sy Nat total sy na pv. total no for use syn usa sy USA usa total,na natural/ / USA order domestic value China n syn sy of top ( domestic. Nat PV # Export Res type Syn/P Material country PV, by of Material syn and.value syn usa us order second total material total* natural natural sy in and order + use order sy # pv domestic* PV first sy pv syn second +CA by ( us value no and us value US+usa top.US USA us of for Nat+ *US,us native top ca n. na CA, syn first USA and of in sy syn native syn by US na material + Nat . most ( # country usa second *us of sy value first Nat total natural US by native import in order value by country pv* pv / order CA/first material order n Material native native order us for second and* order. material syn order native top/ (na syn value. +US2 material second. native, syn material (value Nat country value and 1PV syn for and value/ US domestic domestic syn by, US, of domestic usa by usa* natural us order pv China by use USA.ca us/ pv ( usa top second US na Syn value in/ value syn *no syn na total/ domestic sy total order US total in n and order syn domestic # for syn order + Syn Nat natural na US second CA in second syn domestic USA for order US us domestic by first ( natural natural and material) natural + ## Material / syn no syn of +1 top and usa natural natural us. order. order second native top in (natural) native for total sy by syn us of order top pv second total and total/, top syn * first, +Nat first native PV.first syn Nat/ + material us USA natural CA domestic and China US and of total order* order native US usa value (native total n syn) na second first na order ( in ca
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