[pvc daily review] supply and demand weakened, pvc fluctuates during trading

1. Today's Summary

Certain domestic PVC manufacturers have reduced their ex-factory prices by 10-20 yuan/ton.

This week, some units such as Junzheng, Tianye, Lutai, and Tosoh will undergo maintenance. 。

3. Two departments take action to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises and maintain price order in key areas.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the East China Changzhou market, the spot warehouse delivery price for acetylene method type 5 in East China is 4,640 yuan/ton today, unchanged from the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with no improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals. Although post-holiday maintenance has increased, the overall supply scale remains high. Both domestic and international demand are weak and stable, and the industry is still facing inventory accumulation pressure. Bulk commodities are experiencing weak intraday fluctuations, and there are no positive industry stimuli in the near term. In the East China region, spot market prices are weakly adjusted, with the carbide process Type 5 cash delivery at 4,580-4,680 yuan/ton and the ethylene process at 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.

3、 Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

The basis of the PVC 01 contract in the East China region is in the range of -40/-120, with slight fluctuations in the basis.

4、 Production Status

There are no new enterprise maintenance plans. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization and Price
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5、Price prediction

After the holiday, although PVC production has started to increase despite a slight weakening, the overall production capacity remains high, ensuring sufficient market supply. Domestic demand is expected to remain stable, but foreign trade faces policy-related uncertainties. Industry inventory is expected to continue accumulating, putting pressure on the spot market price. In terms of policy, the short-term outlook is not favorable, combined with weak cost fluctuations. The PVC spot market transactions remain at a low level, with prices fluctuating within a range. The East China carbide method type 5 cash-exchange warehouse delivery price is in the range of 4600-4740 yuan/ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The mainstream trade price of the domestic calcium carbide market in the Wuhai region is 2400 yuan/ton, with slight adjustments in some areas.

Ethylene ： Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia at $805/ton, CFR Southeast Asia at $800/ton, market prices remain stable. 。

7、Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview