[PVC Daily Commentary] Policy Disturbance Causes PVC to Weaken and Adjust

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC manufacturers reduced their ex-factory prices by 20-100 yuan/ton.

② Ordos maintenance completed; maintenance at Huayi, Zhongjia, Junzheng, Zhongtai Huatai plants, etc.; Formosa Plastics Ningbo maintenance over the weekend.

③、 In July 2025, domestic PVC imports amounted to 24,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 47%. PVC exports in July were 330,600 tons, up 26% month-on-month and 113% year-on-year. 。

2 Spot Market Overview

Based on the East China Changzhou market, the cash on delivery price of carbide-based Type V in East China today is 4,720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market remains weak and fluctuating, with supply staying at a high level and no highlights in demand. In the afternoon, the market rebounded, boosted by petrochemical industry policy news. However, both supply and demand for spot goods remain weak, and market prices are mainly focused on low-price transactions. In East China, the prevailing price of carbide-based PVC Type 5 for cash and warehouse pick-up is 4,700-4,820 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC is at 4,800-5,100 yuan/ton.

3、  Futures-Cash Basis

Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

From the perspective of basis, the PVC basis for the January contract in East China is in the range of -160 to -300, with pricing transactions being dominant.

4、  Production Updates

Table 3   PVC Maintenance Equipment List

Formosa Plastics Taiwan Mailiao Plant's chlor-alkali, vinyl chloride, and PVC units were shut down for maintenance on August 16 and resumed operation in early September. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison Chart of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Prediction

The expected reduction in maintenance by manufacturing enterprises is anticipated to ease the pressure of new market supply; however, the overall supply remains at a high level. Domestic demand is weak and stable in the short term, and there is limited new demand from foreign trade. Shipments to India are mainly focused on spot deliveries, and the supply-demand fundamentals remain weak. Costs are stable in the short term, providing limited industrial support. News from policies and other aspects is weak, so the market is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels. It is estimated that the spot ex-warehouse price for acetylene-based PVC type 5 in East China will remain in the range of 4,700-4,850 yuan/ton.

6、  Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The market price of calcium carbide in some enterprises in Wuhai area is between 2200-2250 yuan/ton, and the expected decrease in export volume keeps the price firm. 。

Ethylene ： AsiaEthylene prices are expected to remain strong. CFR Northeast Asia 825 USD/ton CFR Southeast Asia 830 USD/ton 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview