[pp daily review] supply and demand variables pull market, pre-holiday stalemate continues

1. Today's Summary

At the beginning of the month, Sinopec East China reduced PP by 100 yuan. Zhong'an T is set at 6,650 yuan/ton, Zhenlian T is set at 6,950 yuan/ton, M17 is set at 6,800 yuan/ton, Shang F800EPS is set at 8,200 yuan/ton, GM1600E is set at 7,900 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of the month, Sinopec Central China's PP price adjustments: Zhongyuan raffia decreased by 200 yuan/ton, thin-walled Luoyang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, Changling decreased by 70 yuan/ton, transparent decreased by 100-150 yuan/ton, copolymerized Sino-Korean low melt increased by 30 yuan/ton, high melt increased by 50 yuan/ton.

Today, the domestic polypropylene shutdown impact decreased by 1.34% compared to last week, reaching 18.31%. Hengli Petrochemical's STPP unit, with a capacity of 200,000 tons per year, and Huizhou Litong's unit, with a capacity of 150,000 tons per year, have started operations, with an expected daily output increase of 1,050 tons. The daily production proportion of raffia increased by 2.97% compared to last week, reaching 30.94%. This is mainly due to Beihai Refining's 200,000 tons per year, Gulei Petrochemical's 350,000 tons per year, and Jineng Chemical's 900,000 tons per year units switching to raffia production, with an expected increase in raffia output of 4,350 tons per day.

③、（20250919-0925） The supply-demand balance in this period remains tightly balanced. ， The supply-demand gap has narrowed somewhat, continuing to support market sentiment. The supply-demand balance gap for the next period is expected to narrow due to increased supply, which is anticipated to weaken the support for prices.

2. Spot Overview

As a benchmark for the East China region, today's polypropylene filament closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday. The national average price of filament decreased by 2 yuan/ton from yesterday, down 0.03% from last week, in line with the morning forecast.

Futures opened lower and fluctuated today. In the morning, market quotations remained stable with some areas seeing a decrease of 10-20 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the industry's destocking process accelerated, with downstream pre-holiday restocking mainly on a demand basis. Market transactions have entered a slower pace. The supply and demand fundamentals are in a state of stalemate and contention. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in the near term. As of midday, the mainstream price for East China raffia is between 6,750-6,850 yuan/ton.

Figure 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 2 Domestic Polypropylene Prices Chart by Region (Unit: RMB/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

3. Futures-Spot Basis

From the perspective of basis, the polypropylene basis in East China today is -136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to yesterday; the basis in North China is -115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to yesterday.

Figure 3 Basis Trend in North China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 4 Basis Trend in East China (Unit: yuan/ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased from 75.93% yesterday to 77.34%, up by 1.41% from the previous day. Hengli Petrochemical's STPP unit with a capacity of 200,000 tons per year and Huizhou Lituo's unit with a capacity of 150,000 tons per year have started operations, with an expected daily output increase of 1,050 tons.

Figure 5 Domestic Polypropylene Capacity Utilization Trend Chart	Figure 6 Domestic Polypropylene Profit Price Trend Chart (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Market Sentiment

With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream buyers are mostly purchasing on demand, while upstream producers are pre-selling resources in advance to mitigate the risk of holiday inventory. Intermediaries are mainly maintaining low inventory to promote transactions.

6. Price Forecast

The National Day holiday impacts have accelerated the pre-holiday destocking process in the industry chain. Due to the prominent long-term oversupply contradiction in polypropylene, upstream production enterprises are conducting maintenance and reducing load to avoid market risks. On the demand side, there is weak pre-holiday restocking intention, with post-holiday on-demand procurement mode, leading to a weak and fluctuating market situation. Recently, there are limited variables on the supply and demand side, and it is expected that the short-term market will weakly fluctuate around 6750-6850 yuan/ton.

7. Related Product Information

Table 2 Summary of Prices for Polypropylene-Related Products (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information

8. Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Longzhong Information