[pom daily review] spot circulation under pressure, traders offer discounts to sell

1. Today's Summary

1. The inventory of the petrochemical plant is gradually accumulating. 。

②. Market concessions for transactions.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Yuyao region, today's price of Yuntianhua M90 is 11,000 RMB/ton, which is stable compared to the previous period. Today, the POM market remains stable overall. Petrochemical factories are experiencing slow sales, with some facing increased inventory pressure. The market trading atmosphere has not improved, and traders continue to offer discounts, with some negotiation room between 100-200 RMB/ton. By the close of the day, the tax-included price of domestic POM in the Yuyao market was 8100-11200 RMB/ton, and the cash price of POM in the Dongguan market was 7300-10400 RMB/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

This week's domestic POM capacity utilization rate is at 90.87%, a decrease of 0.98% compared to last week's operation. Tianjin Bohua's 40,000-ton/year POM plant is currently shut down for maintenance, while the POM units of other manufacturers are operating stably. The impact of maintenance loss this week is limited. Methanol prices have fallen, and POM prices remain stable. As a result, the product's gross profit margin has increased, raising the profit margin by 26 yuan/ton.

Figure 3: Trend of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate for 2024-2025	Figure 4 Comparison of Domestic POM Profit and Price for 2024-2025 (Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Prediction

Within the week Demand in various regions shows no signs of recovery. ， The order follow-up pace is relatively slow. End-users are primarily digesting previous inventories, showing little interest in short-term replenishment. The market sales are relatively sluggish, and traders are facing some inventory pressure. Some offer prices continue to be adjusted with discounts, making the buying and selling atmosphere less than optimistic. As of the close, the tax-inclusive price for domestic POM in the Yuyao market is 8,100-11,200 yuan/ton, while in the Dongguan market, the cash price for POM is 7,300-10,400 yuan/ton.

5 Relevant product information:

Methanol:Today's methanol spot price index is 2157.66, down by 10.01. Among them, the spot price in Taicang is 2250, down by 22, and the price in Inner Mongolia North Line is 2062.5, down by 17.5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 major and medium-sized cities, 9 cities have experienced varying degrees of decline, with a decrease ranging from 17.5 to 32 yuan/ton. Today, the domestic methanol market overall continues to show a weak downward trend. Intraday futures maintain a decline, negatively impacting industry sentiment, with a generally moderate buying atmosphere in the afternoon. The current total methanol inventory at ports has reached the critical point of 1.3 million tons, marking a new high for the year. Given the high level of imports maintained in September and the expectation of increased delivery in September, the risk of further price declines at ports still needs to be heeded. In addition, there has been a recent increase in the backflow of coastal cargoes, and with concentrated resumption of maintenance projects in domestic production areas and a reduction in external procurement by some olefins, domestic production areas also need to be cautious of the possibility of further weakening. Attention should be paid to the adjustment pace of rising freight rates.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)