Polyolefin Index Shows Mixed Changes, Fundamentals Support Future Market

The South China PP price index is at 7,117.58 points, down 42.43 points from last week, a decrease of 0.59%. Among them, raffia decreased by 50, fiber by 30, copolymer by 70, thin-walled by 50, and homopolymer by 20.

The South China PE price is at 7890.28 points, up 7.28 points from last week, an increase of 0.09%. Among them, linear increased by 20, low voltage remained flat, and high voltage rose by 10.

The spot prices of polyolefins are maintaining a bottomed oscillation, with mixed fluctuations. Although the macro sentiment is improving, the overall focus remains on fundamental trading.

At the macro level, policy expectations have entered a period of verification. Internationally, there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, with the market generally expecting a moderate rate cut of 25 basis points. The focus has shifted to the policy path indicated during Powell’s press conference. Domestically, nationwide phase-out plans are still lagging behind expectations, and the substantial exit of outdated private production capacity has yet to be carried out on a large scale.

The weak fundamental pattern has seen some short-term improvement. On the supply side, petrochemical maintenance has increased significantly, leading to a slowdown in production growth this month. On the demand side, there are signs of marginal improvement as the operating rates of downstream enterprises gradually recover and purchasing activities have increased. However, there remains a clear gap compared to the demand intensity of the traditional peak season. At present, most downstream factories are primarily focused on digesting existing finished product inventories, with procurement activities mainly driven by rigid demand.

Looking ahead to the market, macroeconomic and fundamental aspects continue to improve, but supply and demand pressures still exist. Continue to pay attention to the dynamics of anti-involution and the follow-up of downstream demand in peak seasons, as well as changes in crude oil and coal. It is expected that the South China PP price index will be 7100-7300 and the PE price index will be 7800-8000 next week.