Polyethylene Weekly Review: Spot Prices Rise Overall, Future Expected to Continue Uptrend

I. Summary of Market Conditions This Week

In this period, international market prices have significantly increased, influenced by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and production cuts from major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, which have notably strengthened market support.

The overall operating rate of downstream industries for polyethylene this period was 33.83%, up by 5.21 percentage points from last week, and is expected to increase by another 5.02 percentage points in the next period.

This period's polyethylene production is 683,300 tons, a decrease of 37,400 tons from the previous period; the estimated total production for the next period is 662,800 tons, a decrease of 20,500 tons from this period.

II. Review of this week's polyethylene market situation

This week, domestic polyethylene spot market prices in China first rose and then fell, with the overall average price increasing by 1,100–1,572 RMB/ton on a weekly basis. Driven primarily by the Middle East geopolitical situation, the market experienced a sharp initial surge followed by a significant decline. Currently, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains suspended, and disruptions to the transportation of Middle Eastern crude oil and polyethylene supplies have not been substantively alleviated. Consequently, some domestic refining and chemical enterprises have reduced operating loads due to feedstock supply constraints, and polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile at relatively high levels in the near term.

HDPE film price is 8763 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from last week; LDPE film price is 10855 yuan/ton, up 1572 yuan/ton from last week; LLDPE film price is 8578 yuan/ton, up 1422 yuan/ton from last week.

III. Polyethylene Market Forecast

Polyethylene prices are expected to continue rising in the next period. Focus on three key aspects:

Cost side: Oil-based production costs provide stronger support, while coal-based production cost support remains largely unchanged.

Supply side: Jilin Petrochemical, Zhong'an United, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical and other facilities are planned for maintenance, combined with the fact that some previously maintained facilities have not restarted, the supply is expected to decrease. The next period's production is expected to be 662,800 tons, a decrease of 20,500 tons compared to this period.

Demand side: Downstream operating rates are expected to increase by 5.21%, with spring planting demand being released intensively and orders for agricultural mulch film accelerating in both follow-up and delivery.

Overall, with the improvement of supply and demand data and the continuous cost support, it is expected that the price of polyethylene will increase in the next period, with a range of 100-200 yuan/ton.