[PMMA Monthly Review] Cost Support But Weak Demand, PMMA Particle Prices Remain Weakly Stable in January

I. Key Market Focus This Month

Regarding the capacity utilization rate, some domestic PMMA particle facilities were shut down for maintenance in January, leading to a decrease in the industry's capacity utilization rate to only 55%, which directly impacted the market supply structure.

② In terms of output, the domestic PMMA particle production in January was 41,100 tons. Considering capacity utilization and equipment maintenance, the overall output remained stable without significant fluctuations.

③ Regarding profits, the average theoretical profit of PMMA particles in January was 1108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.09% compared to the previous month. The industry's profitability level has significantly declined, highlighting the pressure of market supply and demand game.

II. PMMA Particle Market Analysis for This Month

In January 2026, the domestic PMMA particle market generally showed a weak and stable pattern, with prices fluctuating narrowly in a stalemate, without a clear one-sided trend. The core feature was a "cost support, demand suppression" game. From the perspective of regional price performance, the prices of domestic and imported PMMA particles in East China moved consistently. The average price this month was 12,047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 431 yuan/ton from last month's 12,478 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.45%. Year-on-year, domestic materials fell by 4,953 yuan/ton from 17,000 yuan/ton in the same period last year, a decrease of 29.14%, and imported materials fell by 5,053 yuan/ton from 17,100 yuan/ton in the same period last year, a decrease of 29.55%. The significant year-on-year decline reflects the overall weak operating trend of the current market.

Layered analysis reveals that raw materials were the primary support for the market this month: The MMA market experienced a trajectory of decline followed by a rise, with the monthly average price increasing month-on-month, providing a solid cost foundation for PMMA particles. Specifically, MMA prices experienced a brief correction in early January before gradually rebounding, entering a sideways consolidation phase in mid-January. Entering late January, some plants in Northeast and South China regions successively shut down for maintenance. Under the dual favorable influences of cost support and supply contraction, the MMA market negotiation focus shifted slightly upward, further transmitting to the PMMA particle market and inhibiting its price decline.

Demand remains weak, failing to provide support with costs: The main downstream sectors for PMMA particles, such as home appliances and automobiles, are currently experiencing low prosperity. Terminal factories generally show a weak purchasing willingness, mostly maintaining small, essential orders and just-in-time replenishment, without any bulk restocking. This leads to a subdued overall market trading atmosphere and limited actual transactions. Even with raw material cost support, prices struggle to break upward, consistently maintaining a narrow, weak, and stable pattern. At the same time, PMMA market holders generally offer stable quotes, but slight concessions are possible in actual negotiations, further highlighting the pressure on transactions caused by weak demand.

III. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1) Raw Material Factors: The price trend of MMA directly influences the cost support for PMMA pellets. In January, the average price of MMA in the East China market was 9,212 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 138 RMB/ton, or 1.52%. This upward trend in raw material costs limited the downside potential for PMMA pellets, serving as the core reason why its price remained weak but stable this month, avoiding a significant decline.

2) Supply factors: The operating rate of the domestic PMMA particle market in January decreased significantly. The equipment load rate decreased by 3 percentage points month-on-month and 7 percentage points year-on-year (the previous operating rate was revised to 58%). The main reasons were the shutdown for maintenance of some units during the month, coupled with the load adjustment of some companies' production units, which led to a contraction in overall industry supply. This echoed the positive news on the raw material side, jointly supporting the weak and stable operation of the market.

3) Demand factors: Weak demand is the key constraint preventing the PMMA particle market from breaking its weak and stable pattern and prices from rising this month. In January, domestic PMMA particle downstream demand continued its weak trend, with overall performance remaining sluggish. Core downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles saw insufficient demand release, terminal procurement was weak, and the market lacked effective transaction support. Even with cost and supply-side benefits, it was difficult to drive prices up.

IV. Market Forecast for Next Month

The domestic PMMA particle market is expected to continue its range-bound oscillation in February, maintaining a game of "cost support versus demand suppression," presenting a stalemate of low profits and weak transactions.

From the supply side, the overall industry operating rate is expected to remain at a high level, with generally ample market supply. At the same time, there is potential incremental supply from new capacity coming online – the second phase of the Chongqing base, with a PMMA capacity of 225,000 tons, is planned to be put into operation in February 2026. The relevant production facilities will meet the commissioning conditions and start operation. If successfully put into production, it will further increase the total market supply and exert some downward pressure on prices.

From the demand side, constrained by the traditional off-season and the subdued performance of downstream industries, demand is expected to remain weak, making it difficult to provide substantial support to the market. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, downstream factories will gradually cease operations for vacation, further reducing procurement demand. The overall market trading atmosphere is anticipated to remain sluggish, with limited actual transactions, making it challenging to support price increases.

From the cost perspective, raw material MMA prices are expected to remain firm, continuing to provide bottom support for PMMA particles and limiting their downside potential. Overall, the market is unlikely to break the current stalemate in the short term. PMMA particle prices are expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation in February, with domestic particle reference prices in the East China market potentially ranging from 15,800-17,000 yuan/ton, and imported particle prices ranging from 15,800-18,500 yuan/ton. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and actual transaction volumes.