[PET Bottle Grade Weekly Review] Polyester Bottle Market Weakly Operates

This week Market Focus:

Production: Capacity utilization rate is 70.14%.

Raw material: PTA industry opens76.48% completion.

2. Market Analysis

During this period (September 19 to September 25, 2025), the price of polyester bottle-grade chips showed a trend of first declining and then rising, with a generally weak trend. On Thursday, September 25, the spot price of water bottle-grade polyester chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan from last week, a decrease of 0.52%. Specifically, this period saw the East China polyester bottle-grade chip market operating weakly with fluctuations between 5,650 to 6,000 yuan/ton. The supply pressure of international crude oil increased, the commodity atmosphere was unfavorable, and the supply expectations for PX (paraxylene) domestically and internationally were poor, leading to a decline in cost support and a continued weakening market. Downstream buyers and traders made large purchases at lower prices, and factories saw an increase in sales volume. In the latter half of the week, as costs rebounded and supply was reduced due to typhoon impacts, market prices were supported to rise, yet overall, the market operated with a weak oscillation.

3. Market Influence Factor Analysis

During this trading cycle (from September 19 to September 25, 2025), the production of polyester bottle flakes was 323,500 tons, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous period.

During this trading period (20250919-0925), according to the Longzhong Information production cost calculation model, the average weekly profit of polyester bottle chips was -189.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.09 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The average polymerization cost was 5337.4 yuan/ton, down by 85.09 yuan/ton or 1.57% compared to last week.

4. Future Forecast:

SupplyFace:The impact of the typhoon on equipment leads to negative expectations for deposits and withdrawals, and supply remains at previously low levels.

Demand side: After concentrated restocking last week, procurement is relatively rigid. The downstream soft drink industry is operating at a weak level of 82-95%, and due to holiday impacts, oil mills are expected to operate around 67%. The PET sheet industry is operating at 65-75%.

Cost aspect: Crude oil is expected to decline, with low processing fees supporting the main raw material PTA and a potential reduction in supply. The recent market rebound is being observed, while the supply-demand structure of ethylene glycol has weakened. Overall, the polyester cost side shows a short-term rebound, but there is limited long-term support.

Forecast for next week: After downstream and traders concentrated on buying at low prices during the week, the subsequent demand is expected to be relatively rigid. There is an expectation of a decline in crude oil, with supply running at low levels. The buying sentiment for polyester raw materials is expected to rise before the holiday, and prices are expected to rebound. Overall, it is anticipated that the polyester bottle chip market price in East China will maintain a volatile rebound trend in the next period.