[PE Weekly Review] Polyethylene Market Spot Prices Fluctuate

1 Summary of Market Conditions This Week

International oil prices fell this week as geopolitical tensions are expected to ease further. In addition, the International Energy Agency’s downward revision of global demand growth forecasts has also put pressure on the oil market.

②This week, for PE packaging film sample enterprises, the profit levels of some products are currently low, and enterprises maintain low finished product inventory, producing according to order guidance.

The polyethylene production for this period is 661,200 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period. The total production for the next period is expected to be 638,100 tons, a decrease of 2,310 tons compared to this period.

2. VolumeReview of the Market Trends for Cyclic Polyethylene

This week, domestic polyethylene spot market prices showed mixed changes, with fluctuations ranging from 8 to 64 yuan/ton (weekly average). Recently, the macro environment has provided positive support, and polyethylene supply has remained relatively stable. Prices of LDPE and LLDPE have continued to remain firm, while some HDPE products experienced slight price declines due to increased supply and sluggish sales. The price of HDPE film stands at 7,969 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week; LDPE film price is 9,583 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from last week; LLDPE film price is 7,466 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from last week.

3. Polyethylene Market Outlook and Forecast

Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the next period. Key points to watch are: 1. Cost side. Cost support from oil-based production is expected to weaken, while cost support from coal-based production is expected to remain largely unchanged; 2. Supply side. Next week, market supply is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance at production units such as Fushun Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, and Lianyungang Petrochemical. Total output for the next period is projected to be 638,100 tons, a decrease of 23,100 tons compared with the current period; 3. Demand side. The overall operating rate of downstream PE industries is expected to decrease by 0.57% next week, with demand remaining relatively stable. Enterprises are maintaining steady operations, but profit levels for some products are relatively low and finished product inventories remain at low levels, with production guided by orders. Overall, supply and demand pressures on fundamentals are easing, macro-level support remains solid recently, and market sentiment is relatively optimistic. Prices are likely to fluctuate with a slight increase, in a range of 5-45 yuan/ton.