PC Weekly Review: Market Rises Then Falls, Mainly High-Level Consolidation and Adjustment

I. This Week's Market Focus Points

This week, the price spread between polycarbonate (PC) and its raw material bisphenol A (BPA) narrowed, leading to a sequential decline in PC industry profitability; some PC production units underwent alternating start-ups and shutdowns, causing a slight drop in industry capacity utilization; PC prices, after surging to a peak, retreated, with the average price reaching a two-year high.

II. PC Market Trend Analysis for This Week

In this cycle, the domestic PC market showed a wide fluctuation trend. As of the close on March 12th, the negotiation price of domestic material in the East China market was in the range of 13,400-16,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 600-2,050 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.17%-13.95%. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil strongly broke through $100/barrel, with Brent crude oil prices reaching $91.98/barrel, an increase of $10.58/barrel from the previous period, a growth rate of 13%, which led to a significant increase in the prices of upstream raw materials. The factory prices of PC generally rose by 3,000-5,000 yuan/ton, with some factories adjusting prices appropriately later. On Tuesday, the auction price of Zhejiang Petrochemical opened and closed at a high, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the spot market, influenced by the chain's rising sentiment and factory price adjustments, spot prices surged at the beginning of the week. However, the transmission of costs to the downstream was hindered, and high-price transactions were weak; meanwhile, the number of low-priced goods in the market increased, and holders were actively selling to make profits, leading to a significant drop in the price center. In the latter half and middle of the week, international crude oil prices fluctuated, and the chain prices followed, with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream factories, and slow digestion of profit-taking, resulting in the overall PC price maintaining a narrow range oscillation.

III. Market Forecast for Next Week