[PBT Monthly Review] Driven by Strong Raw Materials, the Market Followed Suit and Rose in January

Core Hot Topics This Month

Demand side: The overall pre-holiday stocking sentiment this month was moderate. Downstream enterprises and the terminal market showed strong bargaining power, with low acceptance of high-priced goods. Procurement was largely cautious, failing to generate strong demand support.

② Equipment end: There are few planned maintenance shutdowns for PBT devices this month. The industry's overall operating rate remains relatively stable, with supply maintaining a high level and showing a continuous accumulation trend, indicating pressure on the supply side.

③ Cost side: The raw material market performed strongly, providing strong cost support, directly driving up domestic PBT market prices and becoming the core driver of the market's upward trend this month.

II. Review of PBT Market Performance This Month

In January 2026, the domestic PBT market generally showed an upward trend, primarily driven by strong raw material prices. Meanwhile, the continuous tug-of-war between supply and demand prevented a unilateral sharp increase, leading to an overall stable market trend.

From the supply side, there are few PBT plant maintenance plans this month, and the overall industry operating rate is stable. Monthly output has increased compared to last month, and the supply remains high and continues to accumulate, indicating an overall abundant supply.

On the raw material side, the PTA market showed a high-level volatile trend in January, providing strong cost support for the PBT market. Coupled with the pre-Chinese New Year inventory stocking period, PBT suppliers' sentiment to support and stabilize the market significantly strengthened. Some manufacturers issued price increase letters and actively raised ex-factory prices, further boosting market sentiment.

From the demand side, influenced by pre-holiday restocking cycles, some downstream enterprises showed increased purchasing intentions, leading to a temporary surge in market transactions around mid-month, which pushed market prices slightly higher. However, after mid-month, the market entered a brief stalemate. As PTA prices rose again, the PBT market's upward trend became more apparent, with manufacturers generally quoting higher prices in an attempt to further push up prices. Nevertheless, downstream and end markets showed strong resistance to high-priced goods, with a prominent emphasis on negotiation. The game between supply and demand intensified, and the actual negotiation focus remained in a stalemate, failing to rise in sync with manufacturers' quotations, thereby limiting the overall market increase.

III. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1) Cost factors: The high fluctuation of raw material PTA is the core support for the upward trend of the PBT market this month. The strong performance of PTA prices directly pushes up PBT production costs. This, coupled with the strong willingness of suppliers to hold prices firm, jointly drives the PBT market price to follow suit. The cost-side support is significant.

2) Supply factors: PBT plant maintenance plans were scarce this month, keeping the industry's operating rate high. Production increased compared to last month, and supply continued to accumulate, making the overall supply relatively abundant. Although this did not significantly suppress the market, it also failed to provide additional support for price increases, to some extent limiting the upward momentum of the market.

3) Demand Factors: This month, the demand side showed characteristics of "periodic surge but overall weakness." Approaching the pre-holiday stocking period, some downstream enterprises restocked in stages, driving up transaction volumes. However, the overall stocking sentiment was moderate, and downstream and end-users had strong bargaining power, showing low acceptance of high prices. Actual transactions mostly occurred within the negotiated range, failing to create sustained demand pull, which led to the market consistently being in a state of supply-demand stalemate.

IV. PBT Market Forecast for Next Month

The domestic PBT market in China is expected to operate with a slightly bullish trend in February. Influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall trend will exhibit a phased characteristic of "tentative rise before the holiday and a slight decline after the holiday," and the market may experience a situation of high prices but limited trading.

Looking at the stages, at the beginning of February, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises may see a slight increase in pre-holiday restocking demand. There is a possibility of low-price promotions in the market to drive shipments and alleviate inventory pressure. Near the Spring Festival, supported by the raw material side and the firm pricing stance of the supply side, market prices are expected to remain on an upward trend.

In mid-February, with the official start of the traditional Chinese New Year holiday, many terminal businesses and logistics companies have ceased operations and taken vacations. Market trading has come to a standstill, likely presenting a situation where prices exist but no transactions occur. Mainstream quotations are highly expected to remain stable.

After the Spring Festival holiday at the end of February, market trading may gradually pick up, but some enterprises, in order to alleviate inventory pressure, might offer price concessions to clear stock, which could lead to a decline in PBT market prices at that time.

Overall, the PBT market trend in February will continue to focus on raw material price fluctuations and the pace of demand recovery. The market is expected to run on the stronger side, with mainstream negotiations for low-to-medium viscosity PBT chips in East China projected to range between 7,600 and 8,000 RMB/ton.