[PA June Review] Cost Support Strengthens, PA6 Market Fluctuates Upwards in January

Key market focus this month.

① In terms of market trends, the PA6 market in January still faced significant cost pressure. Downstream companies mainly replenished their inventories cautiously and at lower prices. Overall, the market showed a fluctuating upward trend of first a slight decline followed by a rise, primarily driven by changes in upstream raw material prices.

② Regarding the raw material settlement price, the Sinopec high-end caprolactam settlement price for January 2026 was 9770 yuan/ton (liquid superior grade, six-month acceptance draft, self-pickup), a decrease of 115 yuan/ton compared to the December 2025 settlement price, showing a phased decline.

Regarding the listed price of upstream raw materials, Sinopec Chemicals' listed price for pure benzene in January 2026 is an average of 5445 yuan/ton (tax included) for SPCP (basic), which is a significant increase of 145 yuan/ton compared to 5300 yuan/ton in December 2025. This notable increase provides support for the cost side.

II. PA6 Market Review for This Month

In January 2026, the domestic PA6 market as a whole showed a volatile upward trend, mainly divided into two stages: "a slight decline in the first ten days and a rise in the middle and late ten days." The price trends of different types of chips varied slightly, but overall, they were driven by the cost side and achieved an upward trend.

For PA6 conventional spun chips, prices this month first saw a slight dip then rose. In the first ten days of the month, polymerization enterprises concurrently underwent maintenance and reduced production, leading to a temporary easing of cyclohexanone supply. This drove down cyclohexanone prices, and PA6 chip manufacturers actively negotiated price concessions to boost sales, causing chip prices to fall slightly. Subsequently, driven by rising international crude oil and benzene prices, chip prices gradually stopped falling and began to rebound. In the last ten days of the month, due to a significant increase in upstream benzene prices, the cost pressure on raw material cyclohexanone increased significantly, pushing cyclohexanone prices further upward. Coupled with polymerization enterprises being in a long-term state of profit loss, they all followed the raw material price increases to adjust chip quotations. The rising costs boosted market trading sentiment, and downstream production enterprises entered the market as needed, stocking up on lower-priced goods, significantly increasing market activity. As of January 28th, the price of PA6 conventional spun ordinary chips in the East China market was 9900-10300 RMB/ton (cash, short delivery), and the spot price of conventional spun premium chips in the East China market was 10000-10200 RMB/ton (cash, ex-factory).

In terms of PA6 high-speed spinning chips, prices this month showed a trend of stabilization followed by an increase: At the beginning of the month, polymerization enterprises continued to face profit losses and significant cost pressures. Downstream spinning enterprises primarily procured on demand, while polymerization enterprises maintained a negotiation-based sales rhythm, keeping prices stable. Later, with the synchronized rise in upstream product and raw material prices, polymerization enterprises, under the transmission of cost pressure, raised the prices of high-speed spinning chips. However, downstream spinning enterprises remained cautious in their replenishment sentiment, with overall procurement still being on a needs basis, and no bulk restocking behavior occurred, thus limiting the extent of price increases. As of January 28th, the spot price of ordinary PA6 high-speed spinning chips in the East China market was 9900-10200 yuan/ton ex-works for cash, and the spot price of premium PA6 high-speed spinning chips in the East China market was 10500-10700 yuan/ton delivered for acceptance.

III. Market Influencing Factors Analysis

1) Cost Factors: Cost was the primary driver behind the volatile upward trend in the PA6 market this month, and is expected to continue providing support in February. In February, the price of caprolactam is anticipated to continue rising, primarily supported by the sustained strength in benzene prices—Sinopec's listed benzene price has already increased to 6000 yuan/ton, leading to persistently high caprolactam costs in February. In terms of supply and demand, terminal sectors will gradually reduce production and go on holiday in February, while downstream PA6 polymerization enterprises will continue to operate at reduced loads. The caprolactam market will therefore remain in a state of low supply-demand balance and reduced demand. Overall, driven by cost increases, caprolactam prices are expected to remain firm in February, with the average price in the East China market anticipated to be around 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of approximately 2.5% from January, further providing cost support for the PA6 market.

2) Profit Factors: In January, the profit margin for PA6 conventional spinning chips increased compared to the previous period, but it remained in a loss-making state. Specifically, the average monthly price for caprolactam liquid was 9314 RMB/ton (accepted and delivered), and on January 28th, the spot price rose to 9776 RMB/ton (accepted and delivered). The price for PA6 conventional spinning chips remained in the range of 9900-10300 RMB/ton (cash, short delivery). Based on a processing cost of 800 RMB/ton for conventional spinning chips, the average monthly gross profit for conventional spinning chips this month was -380 RMB/ton. Although still in a loss, the extent of the loss narrowed compared to the previous period.

IV. Next Month's PA6 Market Forecast

The domestic PA6 market is expected to show a trend of initial rise followed by stabilization in February, primarily influenced by cost support, supply adjustments, and a seasonal decline in demand, with limited overall fluctuations.

From the supply side, Yuehua New Materials and Hubei Tianyue's related PA6 units are scheduled to continue production after the Spring Festival. Meanwhile, companies that were undergoing maintenance in January will gradually complete their maintenance and resume production in February. Theoretically, the supply volume will increase. However, due to downstream enterprises taking holidays for the Spring Festival, some polymerization companies may experience phased reductions in operating rates. Overall, the PA6 chip supply volume in February is expected to decrease compared to January, with slightly eased supply pressure.

On the cost side, pure benzene prices are expected to remain strong, driving up caprolactam costs. Despite gradual production cuts and holiday shutdowns in downstream sectors and continued load reductions by downstream PA6 polymerization enterprises, leading to a decrease in caprolactam demand and a low-load balance, caprolactam prices are expected to remain firm in February due to strong cost support. PA6 chip cost pressure will persist, providing a bottoming support for prices.

From the demand side, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, some downstream PA6 enterprises will gradually enter holiday or reduced operating rate status, leading to a further decrease in demand for PA6 chips. Downstream procurement will mainly focus on moderate pre-holiday stocking, resulting in limited overall demand that is unlikely to provide substantial market impetus.

Overall, the PA6 market price in February is expected to rise in stages due to cost support, with prices stabilizing thereafter due to seasonal weakening of demand. The average price of conventional spinning regular chips in the East China PA6 market is expected to be RMB 10,200/ton (net cash, short delivery), and the average price of high-speed spinning chips is expected to be RMB 10,600/ton (acceptance draft, delivered).