OPEC+ Cuts Output, Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Plastic Spot Prices Still Have Room to Rise

Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

The halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has impeded oil exports from multiple producing countries, continuously intensifying supply risks and driving up international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures April contract rose by $9.89 per barrel to $90.90, a 12.21% increase week-on-week; the ICE Brent crude oil futures May contract rose by $7.28 per barrel to $92.69, a 8.52% increase week-on-week.

Market Outlook

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran shows no signs of easing, and supply risks continue to increase. (Bullish)

2. The actual navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, and oil-producing countries such as Iraq have significantly reduced their production. (Bullish)

Market concerns that many oil facilities in the Middle East may be further affected, leading to a worsening of the supply tightness. (Bullish)

II. Macroeconomic Dynamics

1. Cleveland Fed President Hammack:The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is likely likely to remain unchanged for a considerable period.The global dominance of the US dollar is difficult to challenge; Boston Fed President Collins: There is no need to change the monetary policy stance; Fed Governor Miller: The neutral rate is approximately 2.5% to 2.75%.

2. Trump: Might increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion and is considering expanding the scope of strikes.Wants to "completely eliminate" Iran's leadership; already has a new leader in mind.No agreement will be reached with Iran unless it surrenders.There are currently no plans to deploy ground troops in Iran, and the participation of Kurdish armed forces in the conflict has been ruled out.Military enterprises have unanimously agreed to quadruple the production of “high-end, precision, and cutting-edge” weapons. A third U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is reportedly set to be deployed to the Middle East “soon.” Additionally, Trump announced the establishment of a new military alliance to eradicate drug cartels.

3. US media:Trump considers options for striking Iran, including sending special forces to destroy Iranian nuclear facilitiesInternal U.S. discussions have considered the possibility of seizing Iran’s strategic oil export terminal, Kharg Island, which handles approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports.

Iranian PresidentIt is absolutely impossible to surrender unconditionally or to attack neighboring countries unless those countries launch an attack on Iran first.The Iranian deputy foreign minister said the country will fight until the last bullet. Additionally, Iran claimed that attacks on the enemy will be more intense and widespread in the coming days, and has already launched missiles at the US carrier "Lincoln".

5. Iran’s senior military spokesperson stated that Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, but vessels linked to Israel or the United States are barred from passage; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have struck an oil tanker flying the flag of the Marshall Islands, which is a U.S. asset.

6、Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has implemented preventive cuts to crude oil production and refining; storage facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are nearing capacity; Iraq’s daily oil output has plummeted from 4.3 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels; and multiple Iranian oil storage facilities have been attacked.OPEC members discuss further production cuts and refining capacity; the International Energy Agency has no plans for a collective release of reserves.

7. Macron held separate phone calls with the Iranian and U.S. presidents. France’s aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle has arrived in the Mediterranean, according to France 24.Iran says if the EU joins the war, it will become a "legitimate" target.

8. Saudi Arabia warns Iran: It will take retaliatory measures if attacked again.The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of diplomats from Saudi Arabia.。

The U.S. government has excluded the Treasury Department from trading oil futures; Trump: Gasoline prices will soon fall.The U.S. will not discuss tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the near term.Meanwhile, Japan is considering releasing its national oil reserves without prior international coordination, while South Korea is contemplating implementing an oil price cap system—the first time in 30 years.

10. The U.S. has lifted the navigation alert advising commercial vessels to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf; U.S. Secretary of Energy: A large oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz 24 hours ago. A return to regular shipping is imminent.

11. Besent: Temporarily allowed India to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea.

12. Sources: Dubai gold is offering discounts of up to $30 per ounce against the London global benchmark price.

13. U.S. Customs and Border Protection is preparing a refund processing system to be deployed within 45 days.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the European Central Bank this year.

15. Before the Japan-U.S. summit meeting, Japan urged the United States not to impose additional tariffs.

16. Japanese media: Japan plans to achieve $254 billion in domestic semiconductor sales by 2040.

A U.S. senator proposed to suspend the gasoline tax until October 1, and may submit the bill to the Senate this week.

18. Indian government sources: India has 250 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products, which can provide a 7-8 week buffer. If supply is available, India will consider purchasing Russian liquefied natural gas.Natural gasCargo has been booked on a tanker, and delivery will be taken at Yanbu Port.

19. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC): An emergency bunker surcharge will be imposed on all cargo from the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions to the Indian subcontinent, Red Sea, and East Africa.

20、China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the foreign exchange reserves amounted to 342.78 billion U.S. dollars at the end of February, an increase of 0.85% compared to the end of January.

22. Ministry of Finance:In 2026, fiscal policy will continue to maintain a more proactive tone.。

23. Zheng Shajie, Director of the National Development and Reform CommissionIt is projected that the GDP growth this year will exceed 6 trillion yuan; in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and other departments, a national-level M&A fund will be established.It is expected that the service sector’s output will exceed 100 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

National Development and Reform Commission:Coordinate the construction of satellite communication, navigation, and remote sensing systems, and build low-altitude infrastructure driven by scenario expansion.

25. Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve its distinctive, market-stabilizing mechanism.Strictly investigate and punish behaviors such as riding on hot topics, hyping up concepts, and market manipulation.。

Zhongjin Exchange issued a risk warning letter: the uncertainty factors in the bulk commodity market have increased, and the price fluctuations of futures contracts such as caustic soda have become more pronounced.

Affected by the international situation, multiple oil-themed funds have issued warnings about secondary market risks.

The Long March 8A Y8 rocket has been transported to the launch area and will be launched at an appropriate time soon.

III. Early Morning Dynamics of the Plastic Market

International oil prices continue to rise! The main domestic plastic futures contracts are in the red.

Plastics contract 2609 closed at RMB 7,756 per ton, up 6.00% from the previous trading day.

The PP2605 contract is quoted at 8,034 yuan/ton, up 5.99% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2506 contract was reported at 5466 yuan/ton, up 5.99% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2605 contract is quoted at 9,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99% from the previous trading day.

IV. Market Forecast

PE: In the short term, the impact of market sentiment continues. The reduction in load and planned shutdowns of some Sinopec enterprises in South China and East China continue to pull the market due to decreased supply. After the resumption of work, the restocking sentiment among end-users has increased, and the supply and demand benefits have pushed the market. However, the limited increase in product prices and the compression of profit margins have dampened some purchasing enthusiasm, restricting the price increase. It is expected that the PE market price will maintain an upward trend, but the rate of increase will slow down, with an adjustment range of 100-500 yuan/ton.

Geopolitical tensions have pushed up the prices of raw materials such as crude oil, propane, and propylene, with strong cost support driving high market sentiment; producers, concerned about future raw material supply shortages, have reduced operating loads, with some facilities planning to shut down, leading to high losses from maintenance, which is bullish for the supply side. On the demand side, the sentiment towards purchasing at high prices is cautious. It is expected that the polypropylene market may continue to rise.

PVC: The maintenance scale of PVC producers remains limited, domestic demand is expected to recover, and foreign trade exports are watching April quotations, with the supply and demand fundamentals remaining in a deadlock; the cost side sees ethylene-based PVC trending higher due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that the spot PVC market will remain weak and stagnant next week, still influenced by geopolitical conflict sentiment. Be alert to the risk of energy supply disruption affecting the ethylene market, leading to expectations of reduced global ethylene-based supply, which may continue to drive up PVC spot prices. Be cautious of regional situation changes.