No Substantial Positive Support, PVC's Short-Term Range Fluctuation Hard to Break

Last week, affected by news in the black commodities sector,PVCThe market rebounded after the drop, but the duration was short due to a lack of support from supply and demand fundamentals, causing prices to soften slightly after the increase. As of now, the carbide method in the East China marketPVCMainstream quotation is at4850-4950 /Ton, ethylene methodPVCThe mainstream quotation is at4950-5300 /

The real estate slump has become a major constraining factor.PVCDownstream demand continues to be weak.

On the demand side, the overall operating rate of downstream products continues to decline and remains weaker than the same period level. The operating rates of major downstream products such as pipes and profiles have weakened. The continued downturn in the macro real estate market continues to drag.PVCDemand from downstream enterprises is insufficient, leading to more on-demand purchasing and low stocking willingness.2025 1-6In the month, the year-on-year decline in newly started and completed real estate areas was significant, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment and sales further decreased. Real estate remains a constraint.PVCKey factors of downstream demand.

The difficulty of high-priced transactions has increased, and export orders have declined month-on-month.

In terms of exports, the off-season in India has affected our country.PVCThe export has formed a certain impact. Additionally, the current price has increased month-on-month, making it more difficult to secure orders for high-priced exports. Recently, the overall export order performance has been average. However, there is still some uncertainty in the export market. Although there are potential positive factors, they are unlikely to provide significant support to the market in the short term.

Industry inventory continues to accumulate, increasing market pressure.

Regarding inventory, as of2025 8 7On that day, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the social inventory in East and South China...48.04About 10,000 tons, an increase compared to the previous month.4.98%The inventory of sample warehouses in the East China region is approximately43.33Approximately 10,000 tons, the sample warehouse inventory in the South China region is about4.71Approximately 10,000 tons. Domestically.PVCThe inventory of sample manufacturing enterprises has increased somewhat, approximately at43.71Around 10,000 tons, a month-on-month increase.1.30%Downstream resistance to high prices and low purchasing enthusiasm, along with a decrease in maintenance enterprises, have led to an increase in both factory and social inventories compared to the previous period, resulting in significant inventory pressure.PVCThe price has formed significant resistance.

The price of raw material calcium carbide has increased and remained firm, strengthening cost support.

After a weekly rebound, the price of raw material calcium carbide remains firm. The cost pressure continues to be transmitted to...PVCIn the production sector, enterprises have strong intentions to maintain prices. However, due to the overall poor supply-demand balance in the market, the support from the cost side is insufficient to effectively drive up prices.Furthermore, from the perspective of industry profits, the comprehensive profits of chlor-alkali remain in a profitable state, and enterprises have a strong willingness to operate.

Overall, at presentPVCThe market supply and demand remain weak, and the black construction materials sector is diverging in the short term.PVCExpected to remain at4750-5050 /Ton range fluctuations. For market participants, it is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of subsequent macro policies, the situation in the real estate market, changes in the export market, and dynamics on the cost side.