International Crude Oil Prices Rise, Plastic Futures Main Contract Narrowly Fluctuates

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On September 26, the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has recently increased, raising market concerns about intensified potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract rose by $0.74 per barrel to $65.72, a 1.14% increase compared to the previous period. ICE Brent crude oil futures for the November contract rose by $0.71 per barrel to $70.13, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract increased by 0.2 to 489.1 yuan per barrel, and rose by 5.9 to 495 yuan per barrel in the night session.

Market Forecast

In the short term, the main trading logic of the international crude oil market has not changed. The positives come from the continuation of U.S. sanctions policies on oil-producing countries and uncertainties in geopolitical situations, while the negatives are OPEC+ maintaining its stance on production increases and the global economy being suboptimal. Currently, there is instability in the Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and Iran situations, and concerns about potential supply risks have not dissipated. Pay attention to the timing.

II. Macroeconomic Dynamics

From January to August, industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 4,692.97 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

At the OpenHarmony Technology Conference 2025, the OpenHarmony 6.0 Release version was officially launched, supporting terminal devices such as phones, tablets, and computers. Additionally, the conference plans to incubate the OpenHarmony Cross-Platform Framework PMC (Project Management Committee) and the Embodied Intelligence PMC. The latter adopts a model-native operating system design approach, supporting the development of full-sized humanoid robot industries.

3. Federal Reserve - ① Barkin: Upcoming data will determine whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates further. ② Bowman: Strongly supports the Federal Reserve holding only Treasury securities. It is appropriate to disregard the one-time impact of tariffs.
4. Tariffs - ① According to informed sources, the Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each device. ② The White House will adhere to a 15% cap on pharmaceutical tariffs in trade agreements with the EU and Japan, while British pharmaceuticals exported to the U.S. may face 100% tariffs. ③ The Trump administration is considering requiring chip companies to match their domestic manufacturing capacity with the volume of overseas imports from their clients. Companies that fail to maintain a 1:1 ratio over the long term will face additional tariffs. ④ WTO: The EU has appealed the panel report on the dispute regarding Indonesia's biodiesel import tariffs.

On the morning of September 27, local time, Israel's "Haaretz" reported, citing sources, that the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) agreed to the ceasefire plan proposed by the United States. This plan includes Hamas releasing all Israeli personnel it has taken hostage, the Israel Defense Forces gradually withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli side releasing Palestinian prisoners in custody. Hamas has not yet commented on the relevant reports.

3. Plastics Market Morning Update

On Friday, international oil prices rose, while domestic plastic futures main contracts fluctuated within a narrow range.

The plastic 2601 contract is priced at 7,197 yuan/ton, up 0.47% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract reported 6916 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% compared to the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is quoted at 4888 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2511 contract is quoted at 6969 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% from the previous trading day.

4. Market Forecast

PE: In the short term, the cost side has weakened, leading to fewer production facilities shutting down due to profit concerns, and the supply volume is expected to continue increasing. In contrast, the demand side still lacks purchasing motivation. Recently, overseas offers have increased due to Brazil's counter-tariffs against the U.S. and the return of Middle Eastern facilities. Overall, the pressure from the supply side will become the main contradiction, and it is expected that market prices will primarily fluctuate with slight declines in the short term.
PP: Recently, international oil prices have been running strong, but the cost side has limited influence on the spot market. From a fundamental perspective, many production enterprises have multiple units undergoing maintenance, with the impact of shutdowns rising to 20.88%, which puts some pressure on the supply side. Throughout the week, downstream operating rates continued to rise, and with the Double Festivals approaching, food packaging orders have seen some growth. However, the overall recovery in downstream demand remains relatively weak, and the willingness to adjust in the spot market before the holidays has decreased. It is expected that the polypropylene market will mainly maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term.
PVC: The supply and demand fundamentals for PVC are expected to be weak. As companies complete maintenance and resume operations, the supply of PVC in the market continues to increase before the holiday. Coupled with new production capacity entering the market, supply pressure is further heightened, with weekly production expected to reach a historical high. Due to the holiday, downstream sectors will have varying degrees of shutdowns, and pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm is low due to order impacts, leading to an accelerated accumulation of industry inventory before the holiday. On the cost support side, the ethylene market is weakening, and carbide is expected to decline after the holiday due to increased external sales, with weak support anticipated post-holiday and stabilization as the main theme before the holiday. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the focus of PVC spot prices is trending lower. However, with continued influence from factors like the black market, sentiment is expected to remain weak into next week.