Insufficient Stock Demand Before the Holiday, ABS Post-Holiday Supply High Pressure on Prices Continues

9Starting from mid to late month, the domestic ABS market price has fluctuated and declined, with some manufacturers facing increased shipment pressure. They have offered low prices to agents, and some agents have resorted to selling off inventory at low prices, resulting in a market price drop.

1. Before the holiday, manufacturers maintain high production, and the demand for stocking up is insufficient.

In September, ABS prices in China fell across the board. Particularly in the first half of September, traders continued to lower prices to sell, resulting in very weak market transactions and average terminal demand. At the beginning of the month, petrochemical manufacturers reduced their ex-factory prices, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders who gradually lowered their prices to sell. In the second half of the month, some petrochemical plants focused on low-price sales, offloading bulk quantities, which put significant pressure on agents. The market continued to sell at lower prices, and there was insufficient demand for pre-holiday stockpiling, making it difficult for prices to rise.

In September, the industry's supply continued to remain high, with a clear state of oversupply, and prices mainly showed a fluctuating downward trend. In terms of market prices, domestic materials ranged from 8,800 to 9,400 yuan/ton, while composite materials ranged from 9,500 to 10,000 yuan/ton. Prices generally fell by 200-300 yuan/ton in September. The total production of the ABS industry in September is expected to be around 598,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 tons, a reduction of 2.45%. Although there was a decline month-on-month, it remains at a high level year-on-year. Towards the end of the month, some manufacturers increased their operating loads, reduced factory quotations, and the market sentiment was mostly bearish. Traders offered discounts to clear inventory, leading to a fluctuating decline in prices.

2. Post-HolidayABSThe industry's output remains high, and prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise.

In October, only the Zhenjiang Chimei facility has a maintenance plan, and production is expected to drop to around 50%. Manufacturers such as Shandong Yulong, Haijiang, and Zhejiang Petrochemical all have plans to increase production, and the total domestic ABS output for October is expected to exceed 650,000 tons, potentially reaching a new high in supply. Manufacturers are likely to face significant inventory pressure, and further reductions in factory prices cannot be ruled out. On the raw material side, styrene is expected to operate weakly overall in October, and there remains significant supply pressure on butadiene and acrylonitrile. The cost support for ABS is generally limited, with bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. It is anticipated that after the holiday, manufacturers will face increased inventory pressure, and prices may fluctuate downward.

Content Source: Sumi Technology