Historic Moment! CATL Surpasses Kweichow Moutai

As of September 25, the total market value of CATL in the A-shares market reached 1,806.4 billion yuan, while the market value of Kweichow Moutai was approximately 1,805.6 billion yuan. Market value surpasses Kweichow Moutai.

The market capitalization of leading technology companies in the A-share market is approaching that of leading consumer companies, reflecting what market signals?

A director of a brokerage research institute analyzed for Shanghai Securities News that behind the market value breakthrough of CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited) is its success in extending China's manufacturing industry to both ends of the "smile curve" and successfully reflecting China's national influence and cultural influence in product pricing. Its pricing power, discourse power in the industrial chain, and ability to integrate the industrial chain have improved, which is a microcosm of the enhancement of China's national influence. The growth of its market value is also a reflection of the growth of China's national influence in the capital market.

The director also stated that it is important to objectively acknowledge the value of Kweichow Moutai. Kweichow Moutai remains one of the representative Chinese consumer brands and has its own space for development.

The market value competition was once intense.

On September 25th, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai remained stable, holding the 1.8 trillion yuan mark. However, after the market opened, the stock price of CATL continued to rise, with its market value increasing from 1.75 trillion yuan, then reaching 1.76, 1.77, 1.78, 1.79... and eventually surpassing 1.8 trillion yuan, historically exceeding that of Kweichow Moutai.

Since the beginning of this year, the stock price trends of CATL and Kweichow Moutai have shown significant differences. Year-to-date, CATL has increased by 48.83%, while Kweichow Moutai has decreased by 3.82%. Over the past 60 days, CATL's stock has risen by 47.10%, while Kweichow Moutai's has increased by 1.55%. In the past month, CATL's stock has climbed by 25.70%, whereas Kweichow Moutai's has decreased by 2.87%.

Comparison of the growth rates of CATL and Kweichow Moutai

A chief analyst from a brokerage firm recently told Shanghai Securities News regarding the driving factors behind the rise of leading lithium battery companies like CATL: "September is typically a peak season for the delivery of power batteries, coupled with the explosive demand for energy storage batteries, significantly enhancing the performance expectations of leading lithium battery companies." On one hand, from September to the end of the year, car manufacturers usually enter a high-density production scheduling period, which is also a peak season for power battery deliveries. On the other hand, the demand in the energy storage market is growing significantly, with market demand leaning towards leading companies with strong technological capabilities.

The chief analyst of the aforementioned securities firm analyzed this viewpoint, stating that lithium batteries are essentially a "safety component," and the safety of products from leading companies is more recognized by consumers. This year, after the "Document No. 136" ("Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy") abolished mandatory storage requirements, the demand for energy storage has shifted from "completing grid connection tasks" to "truly achieving dispatch." Real dispatch has directly led to increased market attention on the quality and safety of battery cells, resulting in greater preference for products from leading companies.

"In this situation, we will not only see a shortage of high-end production capacity but also a rise in prices of products and the industrial chain," the chief analyst stated.

Recently, through various interviews, reporters have learned that CATL is experiencing capacity constraints, with production expectations significantly increasing. A recent report from a securities research institute states that CATL's battery production scheduling (i.e., planned output) for 2026 could reach 1000 GWh, an increase of about 43% compared to 2025, exceeding market expectations. The Shanghai Securities News has been informed by a "Ning Chain" enterprise that CATL has indeed provided very high production scheduling guidance and is working hard to increase capacity to ensure supply.

As a representative of Chinese technology stocks, CATL has also been recognized by foreign investors, with its Hong Kong stocks trading at a premium compared to its A-shares. On the morning of September 25, the PE TTM of CATL's Hong Kong stocks reached 36.20, while the PE TTM of its A-shares was 30.03.

On September 14, foreign investment bank JPMorgan released a research report raising the rating of CATL-H from Neutral to Overweight. JPMorgan stated that there has been a significant increase in the Chinese battery value chain over the past month.

JPMorgan believes that the demand for CATL's energy storage batteries has exceeded expectations, leading to supply constraints and price increases. As a result, they have raised their profit forecast for 2025 to 2026 by about 10%, the highest market expectation.

JPMorgan bluntly stated, "We believe CATL's A-shares are currently the cheapest battery stock globally and are our top pick."

What has shaped CATL?

From a broader perspective, the market value of leading technology companies in the A-share market is comparable to that of leading consumer companies, reflecting a shift in capital allocation and serving as a microcosm of China's industrial transformation.

The head of a brokerage firm's research institute provided his analysis on how to interpret this historic event to a Shanghai Securities News reporter.

It states that while recognizing the value of CATL, it is also important to objectively acknowledge the value of Kweichow Moutai. Kweichow Moutai remains one of the representatives of Chinese consumer brands and is an outstanding company in the Chinese consumer industry. In the process of enhancing China's national and cultural influence in the future, many leading Chinese liquor companies represented by Kweichow Moutai will still have room for development.

The head of the research institute at the brokerage firm analyzed that although CATL aligns with the current market preference for tech stocks, its achievements are not solely due to its strong technological attributes. In terms of technology alone, many chip companies may surpass CATL. CATL's growth also benefits from extending China's manufacturing industry to both ends of the "smile curve" and successfully reflecting China's national influence and cultural influence in product pricing. The improvement in its pricing power, industry chain discourse power, and industry chain integration capability is a reflection of the enhancement of China's national influence, and its market value increase is a microcosm of national influence in the capital market.